While bad weather isn’t expected to affect the presidential election, a cold front is making its way across the nation’s heartland, bringing rain to two battleground states on Election Day.
Rain is expected in the volatile states of Michigan and Wisconsin as the front moves east. It will move into the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys by nightfall.
In Wisconsin, the rain is expected to taper off around noon in Madison and in the afternoon in Milwaukee. Temperatures will be around 60 degrees, which is unusually warm for this time of year.
In Michigan, rain will sweep across the state from west to east throughout the day. The western part of the state near Grand Rapids will see rain for most of the day. In Detroit, rain is expected in the evening. It will be unusually warm for the season ahead of the cold front, with highs near 70 degrees in wetter West Michigan and into the 70s in Detroit.
The other eastern swing states of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will experience dry and unseasonably warm weather.
In the western swing states of Arizona and Nevada, the weather will be cool by desert standards, but without rain.
In states without hesitation, heavy snow is forecast in the Rockies from Montana to Colorado. Winter weather warnings have been issued for these regions.
Along with Wisconsin, some states to the south, including Louisiana, East Texas and Arkansas, are expected to receive heavy rain along the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys, which could lead to flash flooding and an estimated 2 inches to 4 inches of rain between Louisiana and southern Indiana.
Some studies show that the weather can actually affect voter turnout and even voting behavior in presidential elections. The researchers said that bad weather had a minor impact on voter turnout, but those minor impacts could be much more significant in a very close race like the 2024 presidential race is expected to be.
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For every inch of rainfall, same-day turnout can decrease by up to 0.95 points, according to research from Turnout and Rain Analysis in 2023. However, the negative effects of rain can be mitigated by alternative voting methods, such as absentee ballots. mail and early voting, according to another survey conducted this year.
“The impact of weather on voting isn’t as significant or impactful as it used to be because so many people are now voting early in person or by mail,” said Evan Myers, AccuWeather senior vice president and election expert USA today. “The majority of people still vote on Election Day, but there are a lot more people who vote early.”