By james art 
Prediction 1X2 : Which team to bet on?
A tie or Union de Santa Fe wins the match.
1. In their last 5 home matches, Union de Santa Fe either won (40%) or drew (40%) in 80% of the cases. Meanwhile, Newell’s Old Boys have not won any of their away games, with 60% of them ending in draws. This suggests a high probability that Union de Santa Fe will not lose this match.
2. In terms of offensive and defensive potential, Union de Santa Fe and Newell’s Old Boys are around 50%. However, the fact that Union de Santa Fe are playing at home may give them an advantage as they have scored as many goals as they have conceded (6) while Newell’s Old Boys have scored fewer goals than they have conceded away from home (3 goals scored and conceded).
3. In terms of success probabilities, the event “Tie or Union de Santa Fe wins the match” has a success probability of 72.16%. This is significantly higher than the success probability of “Newell’s Old Boys to win the match” (27.84%). Therefore, it is statistically more likely that Union de Santa Fe will win or the match will end in a draw.
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Over/Under 2.5: Which bet?
“Less than 2.5 goals per game”
1. Both teams’ recent performances show a low average goals per game, with Union de Santa Fe averaging 1.2 goals per game at home and Newell’s Old Boys averaging 1.4 goals per game away.
2. Newells Old Boys’ away record is particularly fascinating as they have failed to score in three of their last five away games.
3. The odds also suggest a low-scoring match, with an 84.02% chance of success for under 3.5 goals in the match and a 97.42% chance of success for under 4.5 goals.
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BTTS: Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: No
1. Recent statistics show that both teams have struggled to score many goals. On average, Union de Santa Fe and Newell’s Old Boys score 1.2 and 1.4 goals per game respectively, which is quite low. Also, Newell’s Old Boys have not won a single away game in their last five matches.
2. The odds show that the probability of both teams not scoring is 57.22%, with odds of 1.62, which is a pretty strong indication in favor of this outcome. Compare that to the probability of both teams scoring, which is just 42.78%.
3. Finally, looking at the last matches, we see that in three of Union de Santa Fe’s last five home matches, the opposing team failed to score. On the other hand, they have also failed to score in three of Newell’s Old Boys’ last five away games. This suggests a lack of goal-scoring potential when they play away from home.
Which bet offers an interesting value bet?
Draw it.
1. Previous performance: At home, Union de Santa Fe has a 40% chance to win and a 40% chance to draw. Away from home, Newell’s Old Boys have not won a single match but have drawn 60% of the times.
2. Balanced offensive and defensive potential: Union de Santa Fe and Newell’s Old Boys score and concede an average of 1.2 to 1.4 goals per game. This shows a team that is balanced in attack and defense, increasing the chances of a draw.
3. Probability Ratios: The probability of predicting a draw (28.87%) is lower than that of a Union de Santa Fe win (43.3%) or Newell’s Old Boys (27.84%). Therefore, the parity coefficient is higher (2.96). Given the past performances and balance between the two teams, there is “value” in this bet, meaning there is an interesting potential return on investment.
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Bet on the exact result
Union de Santa Fe 1-1 Newells Old Boys
1. Recent Stats: At home, Union de Santa Fe have scored and conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of around 1 goal per game. On the other hand, Newells Old Boys have also scored and conceded 3 goals in their last 5 away matches, also averaging 1 goal per game. These recent results support the prediction of a 1-1 draw.
2. Offensive and defensive potential of the teams: Union de Santa Fe has an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 50%, just like Newells Old Boys with an offensive and defensive potential of 50%. This is an important stat as it suggests that these teams have similar scoring and defensive capabilities, which could lead to a fairly balanced match and therefore a draw.
3. Draw percentage: Union de Santa Fe have drawn 40% of their last 5 home matches while Newell’s Old Boys have drawn 60% of their last 5 away matches. These numbers indicate a high probability that the match will end in a draw.
Game analysis and key facts
Team form
Union de Santa Fe is inconsistent at home with a win rate of 40%. They scored and conceded 6 goals each. They show an offensive potential of 43% and a defensive potential of 50%.
Newells Old Boys when playing away have not been very successful with a 0% win rate but managed to secure 3 draws. They scored 3 times and also conceded 3 goals. Their offensive and defensive potential are at 50%.
Union are more likely to win the match with a probability of 43.3%, compared to just 27.84% for Newells Old Boys.
The betting suggests a close game with under 2.5 goals (at 1.48) as the most likely outcome. More than 1.5 goals in the match have a success rate of 64.43%.
There is a higher chance (57.22%) that both teams will not score a goal in this match.
Based on recent matches, Union looks strong against weaker opponents but struggles against stronger teams. Newells Old Boys, on the other hand, find it hard to score, especially in away games.
Conclusion: The prediction will be a close game with Union having a better chance to win but with less than 2.5 goals.
The potential number of goals
Union de Santa Fe had a balanced performance at home, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game. Their offensive potential of 43% and defensive potential of 50% reflect this balance.
However, Newells Old Boys are struggling away from home without a win but with an offensive and defensive potential of 50%. A total of 3 goals scored and conceded shows that they are capable of defending but have a hard time converting their chances into goals.
The prediction shows a higher probability that Union de Santa Fe will win the match (43.3%), while the probability of a draw is 28.87%. This suggests that Union de Santa Fe may have a slight advantage.
In terms of goals, there is a high probability (84.02%) that there will be less than 3.5 goals in the match. This suggests that this may be a low-scoring game.
Another key fact is that in 57.22% of the cases both teams do not score. This is another indication that there may not be many goals in the game.
In summary, Union de Santa Fe seems to have a slight advantage at home with little chance of many goals.
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Our conclusions and predictions for this match
To summarize, the statistics and probabilities suggest a fairly close match between Union de Santa Fe and Newell’s Old Boys. Both teams’ recent performances show a likely low-scoring trend, with a key prediction of less than 2.5 goals during the match. Both teams are expected to lack offense, making it more likely that both teams will fail to score.
Despite their poor away performance, Newell’s Old Boys managed to secure a number of draws which could potentially happen again. However, Union de Santa Fe, playing at home, seems to have a slight advantage that tips the scales in their favor. The tie could offer an interesting value bet given the odds and past performances.
The exact score of 1-1 also presents itself as a viable option, taking into account the recent statistics and the offensive and defensive potential of each team.
All in all, bettors should expect a tight game, with a high probability of seeing less than 2.5 goals and a real chance of a draw or a narrow win for Union de Santa Fe.