By james art With two weeks to go until Election Day on November 5, a new poll in the swing state of Nevada shows a race to the bottom between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.
According to the AARP poll, Trump led Harris 49%-47% in a head-to-head race for the state’s highly coveted six electoral votes. The Republican presidential nominee has an even narrower margin of 47%-46% over the Democratic front-runner on a full ballot with third-party candidates. The poll is the latest of likely voters to show a coin-toss race in Nevada.
As he seeks to regain the White House, Trump is aiming to become the first GOP presidential candidate to carry Nevada since President George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election bid. Trump narrowly lost the Silver State in his victory in the White House in 2016 and in his 2020 re-election by President Biden.
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Former President Trump smiles during a Hispanic roundtable at the Beauty Society on October 12, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
The AARP poll, conducted Oct. 8-15 and released Tuesday, shows the former president has a small lead among independent voters. It also points to a wide gender gap, with Trump leading men by 18 points while Harris leads women by 15 points.
Recent polls in Nevada and across the country show an erosion of support for Democrats among Hispanic voters, and according to the AARP poll, Trump enjoys a slightly lower single-digit lead over Harris among those voters.
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It should be noted that the survey does not indicate a large divide in education.
“There is only a small difference in educational attainment, with Harris up 6 points among college-educated voters and Trump up 5 among those without a degree,” the survey’s release notes.
Vice President Kamala Harris approaches Hispanic voter Yvette Castillo during a Univision town hall in Las Vegas on October 10, 2024. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The poll shows Trump has a seven-point lead among voters over 50 and a four-point lead among those 65 and older.
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“With the presidential and Senate races so close, attracting older, high-turnout voters should be a top priority for all campaigns,” emphasized AARP Nevada State Director Maria Moore. “If candidates want to win in Nevada, they need to focus on the issues that matter to older voters, from protecting Social Security to supporting caregivers and reducing the cost of essentials like food and housing.”
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (Getty Images)
Nevada is one of seven swing states whose razor-thin margins decided Biden’s 2020 election victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the race for the White House in 2024.
The Silver State isn’t just a presidential battleground — it’s also home to a crucial Senate race, one of the few that will decide whether the GOP regains its majority in the chamber.
Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen has a five-point lead, 49%-44%, over Republican challenger Sam Brown, according to the poll.
The AARP survey was conducted by the bipartisan research team of Fabrizio Ward (Republican) and Impact Research (Democrat). The firms interviewed 1,368 likely voters in Nevada. The survey’s total sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
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