By james art An exit poll conducted by the sociological agency Gallup International showed GERB – short for Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria – with 25% of the vote.
It clearly overtook the reformist coalition between “We continue the change” and the right-wing “Democratic Bulgaria” with a lead of nearly 10% of the votes.
Initial results are expected on Monday, but it could take days before the final official results are announced.
If they confirm the exit poll, Mr. Borisov will receive a mandate to form his fourth cabinet. However, it appears that it will be a difficult task for him to find allies to form a governing coalition in a fragmented parliament.
In their first comments, political analysts predicted that the results, which did not differ significantly from the previous six elections in the last three years, could lead to a viable coalition and did not rule out the possibility of new elections.
Voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians have created an environment in which radical political voices, aided by widespread Russian disinformation, have successfully undermined public support for the democratic process and boosted the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups.
There was no clear winner in the last vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected in the fragmented legislature failed to form a viable coalition.
Observers suggest that Sunday’s vote will lead to more difficult negotiations between the groups in parliament, especially as their number is expected to reach nine parties.
The endless electoral spiral has seriously affected the economy and foreign policy of Bulgaria.
The country risks losing billions of euros in EU recovery funds due to a lack of reforms. Full integration into the open Schengen area and joining the Eurozone are likely to be further delayed.
Such alarming signals are deciphered by analysts as possible reasons for parties from both ends of the political spectrum to seek a solution based on pragmatic compromises.
Bulgaria’s main pro-Russian party, Vazrazhdane, which pollsters predicted would become the second largest group in the legislature, apparently underperformed.
The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party is demanding that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop aiding Ukraine and hold a referendum on its membership in NATO.
The group has so far been isolated in parliament and there are no new signs of future partnerships. But if the main parties in the legislature fail to break the deadlock, the appeal of Vazrazhdane and other similar groups could increase and put obstacles in Bulgaria’s pro-Western path.