Texas Wild Fires are “Ticking Time Bomb” for country homeowners – Newsweek

The increasing threat of fires and demographic growth in the most risky areas of the country are a “tick bomb” for the insurance market of the homeowners in Texas, experts have warned.

A similar situation of California, where in the last few years, major insurers have significantly reduced the coverage in the most risky areas, while increasing premiums, can be repeated in a single star, which is much less prepared to deal with dangerous flames.

Why does it matter

Recent devastating fires in Los Angeles County have sparked a conversation about the future of homeowners insurance in the country, which are most vulnerable to extreme meteorological events.

In the last few years, several major insurers in disasters predisposed countries such as California and Florida have reduced the coverage in the most risky areas due to increasing costs and higher exhibition of a catastrophe. This, in turn, drastically reduced the availability of these markets, leaving housing owners to look for options and face significantly higher premiums.

Just months before the flames, many in the California region, affected by what is considered to be the greatest loss provided by a fire in American history, were said by their insurers that their policies would not be renewed. Some have lost their homes and now have no idea how to restore their lives.

Texas, though not the first state to come to mind when thinking about the risk of fire, had more wild fires in 2023 (7,102) than any other state other than California (7 364), according to a Redfin survey S In 2022, she actually had the largest number of wild fires in the nation.

“In addition to California, the Lone State also has the highest number of homes in the Wildlife and Urban interface (WUI)-the part of the country where developed lands are intertwined with undeveloped land, which makes it especially vulnerable to wild fires,” Redfin writes S

Increasing risk of devastating fires

Wild fires are common in Texas, “especially in the summer when grass and other fuels can dry out,” said the department of atmospheric sciences, John Nielsen-Gamon, Regents and State Climatologist in Texas at Texas University of Texas, NewsweekS

While the winds are usually light in the summer, making such fires rarely dangerous, “more concerned are fires during the wild fire season in the western and west-central texas that feed on winter-dormant grasses before spring green and can They are distributed by very strong winds, “said Nielsen -Gamon.” These fires can grow much larger and spread very quickly. “

Climate change plays a role in sharpening this issue in the Lone Star state. The risk of wild fires in Texas is increasing, according to Nielsen-Gamon, “mainly because higher temperatures allow potential fuels to dry faster, resulting in a greater number of days when wild fire is possible.”

Fire suppression efforts also led to an increase in the amount of vegetation in fire -dependent areas, further increasing the risk of dangerous fires in the state of the lonely star.

Can Texas experience wild fires as devastating as LA?

According to Nielsen-Gammon, the dynamics of time that nourishes the wild fires of Los Angeles County in January, are unlikely to be presented in the Lone Star country. “Texas does not receive extreme dry winds everywhere near California,” said the climatologist, citing the winds of Santa Anna, who ran LA fires throughout the county.

“Even Western Texas rarely sees that winds exceed the power of the hurricane, but it simply means that the fires in Western Texas will not move so quickly to the urban areas, not that they will not move at all,” he added.

Stephen Haines, an assistant in practice, finance and management economy at the Dallas Texas University, fears that fires can actually move far enough to create huge damage – in part because the state of the lone star is not as well equipped as California to deal with this threat.

Texas does not have the equivalent of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Fire (Cal Fire) at Golden State, which works to prevent and control fires at the state level. “Instead, we rely a lot on our local firefighters to prevent losses, actual treatment, application and things of this nature against the risk of fire,” Haines told NewsweekS

“And when we move away from the big metropolitan areas such as Austin, Houston, Dallas and Fort Worth, we really start to face more local volunteer fire services that they often lack experience,” he said.

“It’s hard to train to become a structural firefighter into a volunteer services. And after you become a structural firefighter, it’s completely different from the wildlife fire department. It’s a different approach. It’s a different thinking,” Haines added.

On top of that, “many dissolved regulations surrounding construction standards” mean that the potential fire can cause huge damage to people’s homes.

“We sit here and are waiting for the bomb to move time to break out,” Haines said. Combine the potential terms for Texas drought with “rich fuel sources scattered by high winds and you have a wild fire that will be very difficult to limit,” he added.

Number of people living in Texas firefighters growing

The risk that Texas fires can cause tremendous damage is increasing as more and more people are moving to fire -prone areas, according to recent data.

A report from 2024 of Redfin found that a total of 97,535 people moved to the United States with high fire in 2023; 35,175 of them moved to Texas. Overall, high fire counts in the country Lone Star saw a net influx of 30,156-cane that most of those who moved to Texas went to live in a vulnerable area.

Demographic growth in these areas is likely to send insurance premiums to homeowners in the coming years, especially if a fire is actually erupting.

“The population growth in the Texas firefighters increases the exposure of potential insurance claims,” ​​said Daryl Fairgeather, Chief Economist at Redfin, before NewsweekS “As more and more people are moving to areas at a higher risk of fire, especially in parts of the central and western Texas, insurance companies are facing more potential responsibility.”

What moves this influx of people to the Texas Fire Areas, where the land is cheap, is “the lack of homes at affordable prices in the city centers,” Fauruer said, even when these areas “can carry higher insurance costs.”

Buried areas of Texas may not remain as affordable, especially since the presence of more homes increases the potential for fire damage, Nielsen-Gamon said. On the other hand, the climatologist added with a touch of optimism that this demographic change is not completely negative.

“When Counts in DFW [Dallas-Fort Worth] Metroplex passes from mostly rural to all-city, the chance of fires is descending because there is no longer open area or shrubs for fire spreading, “Nielsen-Gamon explained.

An occurrence of insurance crisis

Climate -related events already influence the Texas markets.

“Insurers are confronted with increased claims of heavy storms, floods and fires. This has led some insurance companies to significantly increase tariffs, or become more selective in terms of coverage in certain areas,” Fauruer said.

Homeowners Insurance Premiums in Texas Are Estimated by Lendingtree to have Increased by 54.5 Percent Between 2019 and 2024. $ 4,400-130 Percent More Than the National Average Average $ 1,915 S

“This affects both the insurance and residential markets, since the higher insurance costs or difficulties in receiving coverage can negatively affect the sales of housing and real estate values,” Fauruer said.

Insurers “notice, especially because of California” of the risks caused by more frequent, unpredictable fires, Haines said. “Insurers like the state farm do not want to write a business in Texas because they see these losses,” he added.

Wildfire losses are especially bad for insurers, explained Haines, “since most of the time you have a loss, it is the responsibility of the insured to validate or provide evidence or documentation for their loss; In Wildfires, since the proof is no longer there, it’s not really something they have to do.

Fairweather believes that as the frequency and cost of claims increase in Texas, insurers will have to raise their prices or reduce the coverage to remain profitable. “Insurers are likely to charge higher premiums, offer less coverage or no coverage at all, and will require more adaptations to homes to make them more resilient to natural disasters,” she said.

Haines agrees that Texas insurers are already “prices in losses they may expect to have in the future,” Haines said. “When I first moved to my house 20 years ago – and I live in Alan, Texas – I paid maybe $ 1,100 a year for the homeowner insurance,” he explained.

“Today I pay $ 4600 a year with less coverage. So after 15-20 years it has grown by 300 percent. And I have many friends who are in the country who find it difficult to cover because they are priced,” he said S

What can Texas do?

Fairweather believes that Texas could invest more in fire prevention by managing forests and imposing a fire resistance in construction standards and infrastructure such as utilities, as well as increasing the funding and efficiency of fire services.

More efforts can be made to discourage construction in fire departments and promote construction in fire-dependent areas, she said, and to ensure that insurance provisions work in the best interests of Texas.

“This means that the regulations are working to protect consumers, but they are not so burdensome that insurers leave Texas completely,” she said. “There are enough insurers who want to work in Texas, so insurers compete for clients, not the other way around.”

Haines believes that softening efforts should include a combustion of combustible substances within 70 feet of home and focus on using more indisputable materials when building houses, while insurance companies need to review the way they calculate the risk and They offer policies.

But a real revolution in the way housing insurance systems work in Texas and the US will only happen when the country is forced to make changes, Hines said.

“Think of a balloon that continues to inflate and it will eventually pop up,” he said. “And when it appears, everything that has turned into a change in politics. We will continue to have significant losses, until one day the system will break and the government will intervene and create legislative action,” Haines explained.

“Wild fires will not be the catalyst for the extensive change. This will be likely to be driven by the hurricane, because it will exceed the borders of the state. And frankly, it will probably be Texas or Florida.”