So goes North Carolina, so goes the presidential race? Harris, Trump campaign puts emphasis on winning state – Winston-Salem Journal

The prize: North Carolina is tied with Georgia as the state with the eighth-most electoral votes at 16. Of the seven swing states, only Pennsylvania has more electoral votes at 19.

Trump leads by an average of 1 percentage point in the 28 polls since Oct. 1 listed by 538.com.

Both campaigns have spent much of their time in the Tar Heel state on friendly territory trying to energize their bases: former Republican President Donald Trump mainly in the suburbs and rural areas with forays into Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh; and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris on the subway.

“North Carolina has gotten a surprising amount of attention from both Republicans and Democrats in the last week of the campaign,” said John Dinan, a political science professor at Wake Forest University.

“In fact, looking at Trump’s schedule in his final days, North Carolina and Pennsylvania were the two most prominent states in terms of where he visited. Harris, (Tim) Walz and (JD) Vance have been in the state at different times in recent days.”

Dinan said it’s clear from the attention being paid to North Carolina that “both sides see the state as still up for grabs.”

“Trump wouldn’t have made four visits to the state in the last three days of the campaign if he thought he had already clinched victory in North Carolina.”

During Saturday’s rally at First Horizon Coliseum, Trump stuck to his rules, deriding Harris as a “low IQ individual” while promising mass deportations and tax cuts.

Trump gave the crowd an overview of his vision and policy priorities for a second term.

“With your vote on Tuesday, I will end inflation,” Trump said. “I will stop the massive criminal invasion of our country and bring back the American Dream.”

Immigration was a major focus of Trump’s remarks. Trump said he would immediately initiate “the largest criminal deportation program in American history” if re-elected.

Dinan, meanwhile, said the Harris campaign “still sees the state as potentially reachable, as evidenced by their scheduled multiple visits to Harris and Walz over the past week.”

North Carolina’s political geography and history “make it one of the key battleground states that will define this race,” said Chris Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University.

“Without North Carolina, Trump’s path to the White House is extremely narrow. Both candidates know this and act accordingly.

At this point, “it’s all about mobilization,” Cooper said.

“There are few, if any, undecided voters whose vote will be swayed by a compelling message or narrative.

“Almost all the messaging now is simply aimed at turning off each candidate’s core voters.”

An interesting and perhaps telling omission is that Winston-Salem and Forsyth County did not stage a major presidential campaign rally, even though Forsyth is the purplest of the state’s five major metropolitan areas.

Unlike in 2016 (Fairgrounds Annex) and 2020 (Smith Reynolds Airport), Trump chose not to hold a rally in Winston-Salem.

Neither did Harris, although her running mate Tim Waltz showed up at Carver High School.

Both campaigns, perhaps due to the demands of competing in seven swing states, may have calculated that rallies in Greensboro would attract enough interest from Forsyth and other Triads.

Trump held campus rallies at First Horizon Coliseum, while his vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, spoke in Greensboro and High Point University.

Meanwhile, Harris reunited in September at the Coliseum, and recently Waltz in Greensboro.

“I really can’t say for sure why they did it, but Greensboro has a larger population and is closer to the Triangle, so they may have decided they could draw more crowds and get more media coverage out of it.” , said Zagros Madjd-Sadjadi, a professor of economics at Winston-Salem State University.

First Lady Jill Biden rallied volunteers at the Forsyth County Democratic Party on Monday, urging them to knock on one more door, call one more person and have one more conversation on Harris’ behalf.

“I know we are tired. I know we are tired. We have to find the strength to carry on,” Biden told about 150 supporters.

She asked them to remember what it was like the morning after the 2016 election, when Trump upset Hillary Clinton, shocking most prognosticators.

“Do you remember that feeling?” Biden asked. “Let this feeling sustain, invigorate and sustain you. We cannot allow this to happen again.”

Tanya Reilly, a Democratic volunteer campaigning, writing postcards and calling voters, said Biden’s 10-minute speech provided a much-needed boost of energy.

“It was like a little pep rally, the last hurray to go,” said Riley, wearing a Harris T-shirt.

It was Biden’s second visit to the city in the past year, but the first to campaign for Harris, who replaced her husband, President Joe Biden, as the Democratic presidential nominee in July.

In January, Biden stopped by Forsyth Technical Community College for a 45-minute visit that coincided with the announcement of $30 million in new investments for North Carolina, part of the CHIPS and Science Act, part of federal legislation that supports scientific research and the creation of jobs in innovative technologies.

Biden is one of several high-profile surrogates to root for Harris around the country, but one of the few to visit Winston-Salem. Earlier Monday, the Reverend Al Sharpton and members of the Central Park Five were at Union Baptist Church on Trade Street.

At Democratic headquarters on Monday, Biden touched on some of Harris’ usual campaign talking points — her “Opportunity Economy,” which includes child tax credits and reproductive rights for women. She also described Harris as calm and determined.

“Let’s remind people that character and temperament matter,” Biden said.

She thanked the volunteers for their support.

“That’s it,” she said.

“Thank God,” one of the volunteers said, a remark that made Biden laugh.

North Carolina has become an “increasingly critical state during presidential elections because of ever-increasing turnout and electoral votes combined with demographic characteristics and changes that are attractive to both parties,” said John Quinterno, director of South by North Strategies Ltd. , a Chapel Hill research firm specializing in economic and social policy.

Harris’ campaign, Quinterno said, is trying to rally college-educated voters in growing urban areas as a source of support, along with young people, concentrated in many of the state’s college-educated communities, and African-American voters living in both urban and rural areas. in rural areas.

The Trump campaign, Quinterno said, is likely looking to non-college-educated voters, religious conservatives and military personnel as sources of support.

“The most obvious path to victory for Trump is to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina,” Majd-Sajjadi said. “Losing any of these means he has to win at least two of the six other swing states to secure victory, making victory much less likely.”

“Thus, a win for Harris in North Carolina dramatically increases her chances of winning nationally.”

There have been several national media reports, most recently by The Atlantic, of Trump’s campaign placing more emphasis on his rallies and letters than door-to-door visits, particularly in urban counties.

On the other hand, Harris’ campaign has reportedly placed a greater emphasis on grassroots campaigning than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.

“Both Trump and Harris would like to sway undecided voters, but their rallies and other appearances are focused on another priority: ensuring that core supporters go to the polls,” said Mitch Kokai, senior policy analyst at the conservative think tank. John Locke Foundation.

“When the margin of victory can be tens of thousands of votes, a more highly activated base can make all the difference.”

“While Harris’ team would love to take North Carolina, forcing Trump to commit time and resources here helps them protect the swing states that went blue in 2020,” Kokai said.

According to Cooper, there is still a way for newly hatched third-party candidates to play the spoiler role.

“The key group here is not undecided or third-party voters, but unaffiliated voters,” Cooper said.

“They make up the majority of registered voters and, at least through early voting, the majority of voters in North Carolina. They are the key to winning in the Old North State.”

Still, Cooper said he recognizes that third parties “can make the difference in a particularly tight race.”

“That’s why the major parties and some of their ideological allies have joined the debate about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West appearing in the North Carolina election.

“It’s unclear whether West’s name will matter to Harris’ chances of winning North Carolina, but the Democratic team certainly thinks it’s worth the time and effort to fight his presence on the ballot.”

With neither Trump nor Harris consistently polling more than 50 percent, third-party candidates “could definitely move the needle in North Carolina,” Majd-Sajjadi said.

On Sunday, Bishop William J. Barber II delivered his final sermon on his 2024 Get Out The Vote Tour at Union Baptist Church in Winston-Salem. He spoke for nearly 50 minutes.

Barber is president of Repairers of the Breach, which focuses on the religious side of the political divide.

Barber told the audience that they represent the culmination of a mobilization effort to reach more than 12 million poor and low-income voters who attend an event in person or watch online during the 2024 campaign.

Barber’s sermon focused on what the group called “the moral imperatives of our time, drawing from Isaiah 58 — which includes the phrase in Isaiah 58:12 for which the group is named — and from Matthew.

He said these writings address “the urgent call to address systemic injustices—racial inequality, poverty, access to health care, environmental devastation, and the threats posed by religious nationalism.”

“We declared that we (black Americans) were the swing vote,” Barber said.

“We specifically targeted the poor and low-wage earners, including more than 990,000 in North Carolina alone, through the work of more than 650 volunteers.

“If we ever needed a voice and a voice, we need them now.”