By james art LAS VEGAS — Early voting numbers in Nevada show that Democratic dominance of the swing state’s presidential election could collapse next month, making former President Donald Trump the first Republican to win six of the state’s Electoral College votes in 20 years.
The 2020 Democratic lead of 47,000 ballots returned so far in the cycle has been erased, with a swing of nearly 53,000 Republican ballots, GOP campaign strategist Jeremy Hughes tweeted Tuesday.
That gives Republicans a lead of nearly 6,000 votes in the Silver State.
The shifting ballot numbers come as a new AARP poll shows the former president ahead of Kamala Harris in Nevada by 2 points, with independent voters over 50 favoring Trump 41 percent to 27 percent for vice president.
A Trump victory here would seriously diminish Harris’ chances of keeping the White House in Democratic hands. The veep team visited former President Barack Obama in North Las Vegas on Saturday and will bring First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Tim Waltz next week in an effort to boost voter turnout.
Early voting in Nevada ends Nov. 1, while vote-by-mail ballots can be received until 5 p.m. Nov. 9 — four days after Election Day — as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 5.
Total mail-in and early voting figures released by the secretary of state show 263,410 ballots had been cast as of Monday, representing 13.1 percent of the statewide voter turnout. The Republican Party’s 101,231 ballots cast so far lead the Democratic Party’s 95,392 ballots by 5,839, or 2.2%. Another 66,787 ballots were cast by unaffiliated voters or registered with other political parties.
What those early ballots — in person and by mail — contain will not be known until the polls close on Nov. 5. But pundit John Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, said Monday night that the GOP hasn’t seen a statewide vote lead here since 2008 and that “could signal serious danger” for the Harris campaign .
The RealClearPolitics Nevada poll average gives Trump a 0.7-point lead over Harris, down a tenth of a point from the weekend.
At issue is the so-called “Clarke County firewall” that Democrats supposedly have in the state’s most populous county, which includes Las Vegas and boasts 1.4 million registered voters. That amounts to 70% of the state’s 1.98 million “active” and registered voters.
Election officials reported 72,969 Clark County Democrats cast ballots early Tuesday, compared to 66,481 Republicans and 49,893 “other” voters. That gave Democrats a margin of about 6,500 votes, but Washoe County — the state’s second most populous — and several rural counties saw strong turnout.
Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Jox tweeted that Democrats “need to improve on Clark [County]. So far they haven’t.”
Silver State Republicans say the early results are encouraging and the result of hard work on the ground.
“We’re seeing strong turnout from Republicans who understand the importance of saving their vote early,” said Nevada Republican Party Chairman and senior Trump adviser Michael J. McDonald to The Post.
“This enthusiasm reflects voter confidence in President Trump’s leadership and his ability to address the core concerns of Nevadans: rising costs, stagnant wages and affordable housing.”
Veteran GOP Sam Brown’s Senate campaign is also buoyed by early voting numbers.
“There’s an incredible energy on the ground,” said Reagan Lehman, the campaign’s communications director. “Nevadanians have made it clear they are ready for change, and the momentum is on our side.”
Democrats, meanwhile, believe that targeting the state’s nonpartisan voters will give them a win, however narrow.
“Nevada is consistently won by a margin. As we’ve said all along, this election is going to be close. We know that nonpartisan voters will play a major role in deciding this election, which is why we invested early in a ground game focused on both electing Democrats and winning support from nonpartisan and moderate Republicans,” the Democratic spokesperson said of Nevada Nicolas Simoes Machado to The Post.
“Nevada Democrats have been laser-focused throughout the cycle on speaking directly to the growing number of registered nonpartisans and making sure we mobilize the broad and diverse coalition we need to win the state.”