By james art 
Boise State’s road to the College Football Playoff continues to crystallize.
After an incredible win last Friday night at home, Boise State remains at home to face Nevada in action in Week 11. The Broncos are once again a heavy favorite against a Nevada team that has shown promise under first-year head coach Jeff Choate, but starts to run out as the season goes on.
Can Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos continue to rack up points in style en route to another victory?
Here’s how we see it.
Distribution
Money line
Total: 61.5 (Over -114/Under -106)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sports Exchange
Nevada
Brendan Lewis: Lewis returned after a one-game absence and made an impact for the Wolves. Despite the loss to Colorado State, Lewis totaled more than 350 yards with three touchdowns. He’ll go up against an incredibly disruptive Boise State defensive line that has the second-most sacks in the country but is vulnerable in the back end, ranking outside the top 100 in both pass rush and punt rushing. .
Boise State
Ashton Janty: The Heisman Trophy candidate continues to be the country’s most dominant running back, leading the nation in rushing yards, but has actually slowed down the past two weeks. Jeanty has averaged about four yards per carry the past two weeks, but has still racked up more than 120 yards in each. Can he take advantage of Nevada’s vulnerable defense?
On a projected breakout, I’ll skew toward the total in this one, which I think is too high.
The Broncos’ offense is off a monster offense, pouring 52 points on a speedy San Diego State team.
However, Nevada is the opposite, playing at the fifth-slowest pace in the country this season. The Wolfpack has looked pretty great on offense this season, 45th in EPA/Play and 34th in passing percentage. If the team can keep possession and keep Boise State’s offense on the sidelines, this game could quickly turn into a low-scoring affair.
Boise State’s game total against San Diego State closed at 55.5, but that total is almost a touchdown higher because of the big score, I believe the circumstances are far different in this game.
While Nevada may be ripe for Jeanty to take the floor, the secondary is far improved, ranking 55th in EPA/Pass and 33rd in explosive passing percentage.
I’ll back a lower score and possibly a more competitive affair than last week for the Broncos and the game to go under that high total.
CHOICE: UNDER 61.5
Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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