By james art Top line
Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by one point in the latest poll of likely voters in the swing state of Nevada, where eroding support among Latino voters threatens to hurt her chances of winning the state in November.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks on during a Spanish-speaking roundtable discussion at the Beauty Society … [+]
Key facts
Harris trails Trump by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent, according to an AARP poll of likely voters released Tuesday (margin of error 4), while Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters voters released on Monday (marginal error 4.8).
Harris has a 0.2-point lead in Nevada, according to the Five Thirty Eight polling average, while an Emerson poll released Oct. 10 found her leading by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent, after the two were tied on 48% in September, and a Wall Street Journal poll showed Trump with an unusually wide five-point lead.
Nevada — which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.
Support for Harris among Latino voters will be critical to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up about 30 percent of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographics.
Biden leads Hispanic voters in Nevada over Trump 61 percent to 35 percent in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56 percent to 40 percent in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/University Suffolk poll of Hispanic voters .
Harris is particularly struggling with Hispanic men, according to the poll, which found 53 percent of Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40 percent support Harris, while 53 percent of Hispanic men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.
Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns of Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, with 37 percent saying inflation is their top concern and 17 percent saying immigration.
A big number
56%. That’s the share of Hispanic voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49 percent who do so in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Tangent
Nevada is one of three swing states, in addition to Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Trump leads by narrow margins in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Harris has a thin edge in national polls.
Key background
The Harris campaign is making a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the congressional Hispanic caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against the Trump ally Carrie Lake for Arizona Senate. The tour will include stops at small Latino-owned businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other public places frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.
Further reading
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump With Slight Lead (Forbes)
Election 2024 Shifting state polls: Trump maintains lead in Arizona, while Harris holds narrow lead in Pennsylvania (update) (Forbes)
Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris leads in decisive swing state in latest poll (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris holds surprising 1-point lead in new poll (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)