By james art REGENSBURG (David Hein’s Look at the Future) – Imagine having to wait another year to watch Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo and Kyrie Irving in the NBA. Of course, the NBA lockout is over. But this column is actually about one of the so-called “Issues” in the yet-to-be-finalized collective bargaining agreement.
NBA owners and players have yet to figure out what the age limit will be for the NBA draft. There are three options. The age limit — currently 19 and one year removed from high school — is unlikely to be removed entirely.
The second option is to keep the current one-and-done rule, which refers to players who go to college for one year and then go to the NBA.
But the third option — and currently talked about as the most likely — is what’s called “Two and Through,” meaning an age limit of 20 and two years removed from high school so players attend two years of college.
There are many benefits to this idea.
First, it’s good for college basketball because players will then stay two years in college, improving the level of play because players have more time with coaches, who then in turn aren’t forced to reload or retool their teams so widely and so often.
College basketball fans will also benefit from the two-and-out rule as they will have another year to watch great players like Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Tyreek Evans, John Wall and others who are out of college after their freshman season.
The NBA will also benefit as it will have another year to monitor and evaluate elite young talent in American colleges and elsewhere around the world.
International players would also benefit from such a measure – although it would mean future rising superstars like Kanter and Valanciunas would have to wait another year before they could make their NBA debut.
But there haven’t been that many international deals before Kanter, Valanciunas and Biyombo — although Kostas Koufos, Serge Ibaka, Petteri Koponen and Ryan Richards would all be affected.
Another European who had to wait another year was Ricky Rubio. And that might not have been a bad thing. Still only 21, the Spaniard was called up at the age of 19 in 2009 to much fanfare, media attention and scepticism.
NBA fans with high expectations for Rubio were prevented from seeing him play in the States as he remained in Europe. It was the right move for him to stay in Spain and develop his game. But detractors began looking for holes in his game as much or more than praising his skills. And more and more people doubted Rubio, who seemed to be slowly disappearing under the pressure of expectations.
Another year of draft ineligibility would have been invaluable for Rubio to work on his game in peace and quiet while giving pundits another year of observations before telling the general public about the latest European drafted by an NBA team. giving them perhaps a lighter expectation.
Such a move would certainly have an impact – especially in this day and age when teams value potential almost more than proven talent. You just have to look at the 2011 NBA Draft. Of the top eight picks, only sophomore Derrick Williams and Jan Vesely would have been eligible for the draft under the two-and-up rule.
There is another aspect of this impending decision that has not been discussed much until now.
If two-and-out becomes the new rule, then European and international basketball could lead more American high school graduates to follow the path started by Brandon Jennings in 2008—namely, deciding not to attend college in order to earn money and to play professional basketball overseas.
High school star OJ Mayo was rumored to likely play in Europe during the season before Jennings made the big move.
With a new ruling, some top stars may find a two-year wait for a basketball paycheck too long and at least two years of a free college education not rewarding enough, opting instead to pursue professional hoops in Europe or China, or wherever they took the ball away. However, those players who follow Jennings’ path will be the exception rather than the rule.
The new NBA draft age limit of 20 has far more pros and cons than cons and cons. And the NBA would do its own league, college basketball and international basketball a favor by implementing a new two-and-through rule.
David Hine
FIBA
FIBA columnists write on a wide range of basketball-related topics that interest them. The opinions expressed by them are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.
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