At this time next week, the seemingly never-ending festival that is the United States presidential election will be over and hopefully we will know the results.
Harris or Trump? Kamala or Donald? The Veep or the former president?
I’m tired of being asked what I think is going to happen. I cannot call it, and it is not mine to do so.
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Of course that matters, but my job as shadow foreign minister, along with that of the foreign minister and everyone responsible for Australia’s foreign policy, is pretty clear: to work with the winner.
Some may want to crash the result. Others may heed Kevin Rudd’s advice to soothsayers and “chill out.”
But there will be work to be done to work with a new US president and his administration, whoever he is.
Next January, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will take the helm of the world’s largest economy, most powerful military, enormous cultural influence, huge engine of innovation and beacon of democracy.
Australian officials must stand up for our interests, as those interests will undoubtedly be affected by the decisions of our most important ally.
We must engage and advocate with confidence because our bond is strong. Labor and Liberal governments in Australia have worked effectively with Republican and Democrat administrations in the US.
The strength of the Australia-US relationship has always been – and should continue to be – transcending party politics.
Our priorities for engagement with a new US President and his officials must focus on Australia’s most important interests, namely our national security and economic strength.
First among them is the union. For more than 70 years, the ANZUS Treaty, signed by the Menzies Government, has strengthened Australia’s defences, committing us to consult on mutual threats and act to meet common dangers.
With the development of the AUKUS partnership by the Morrison government, the extent of the Australian-US defense partnership has only deepened in recent years.
Sharing the most sensitive defense technologies, along with freer trade in defense equipment, helps create a deterrence environment that makes us stronger and safer. In a more dangerous and contested world, this is as important as ever.
The Alliance and AUKUS enjoy bipartisan support in both countries. The new administration should not threaten this, but just as the pursuit of peace requires constant vigilance, maintaining the strength of the union requires constant support.
Although the alliance is a point of strong consensus, the pursuit of free trade has become a matter of greater differences.
So much of Australia’s 30-plus years of strong economic performance can be attributed to our embrace of an open, trading economy. Lowering tariffs, avoiding distortive subsidies, and pursuing free trade agreements have made our nation stronger.
The 2016 US election marked a turning point in US trade, where both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump backed away from Barack Obama’s commitment to the Trans-Pacific Partnership regional free trade pact.
Since then, Donald Trump has increasingly pursued and advocated the use of tariffs as a tool of economic policy, while Joe Biden has poured billions of dollars into subsidies.
While there is validity in some US arguments about non-market distortions by Chinese competitors, supply chain security and the promotion of lower emission technologies, Australia must be resolute in our defense of free trade principles.
Joe Hockey and the Turnbull government secured exemptions for Australia from some of the Trump administration’s first tariffs. As Trade Secretary in the Morrison government, I worked with like-minded countries to protect important functions of the World Trade Organisation.
The Albany administration, however, is more likely to try to follow the Biden administration on industrial subsidies. Spending billions to pick winners is a risky path and whatever the protectionist barriers, Australia must resist them in favor of openness.
Abandoning the TPP was also a blow to US engagement in our region, particularly the deeper economic engagement with Southeast Asia. The Biden administration sought to replace that with the Indo-Pacific Economic Prosperity Framework.
It is in Australia’s interest that our regional partners have deep links between major economies. We must actively encourage the United States to have maximum openness and economic engagement with these partners.
Likewise, we must push for continued U.S. diplomatic efforts in our region, building on its recent adoption of policies championed by our previous Liberal government, such as special summits with ASEAN and Pacific Island leaders and the opening of new diplomatic missions in The Pacific Ocean.
Just as US engagement in our region is important, so is US leadership in the world.
With Russia and North Korea at war over Ukraine, Iranian-sponsored terrorism fueling conflict in the Middle East, and China conducting unnecessarily dangerous military operations in our region, it is important that the United States work with all possible partners to deter authoritarian aggression.
A just outcome that protects Ukrainian sovereignty and independence is critical, as is the defeat of terrorists who oppose normalized relations between nations in the Middle East.
Closer to home, Australia should actively promote the benefits of our economic partnership with the US. The new administration needs to know that we value the role of the US as Australia’s largest foreign investor and look forward to further growth.
Such investments complement all our other priorities, both economic and security-related, while being mutually beneficial to both our nations.
President Harris or President Trump? In both cases, there is work to be done.