By james art 
After a dramatic weekend of college football that saw seven Top 25 teams lose, BYU is the only undefeated team left in the Big 12. After a week off, BYU returns to action against archrival Utah this weekend. ESPN FPI predicts BYU at Utah and updates BYU’s projected win total for the 2024 season.
FPI gives BYU has a 59.3% chance to beat Utah. Before the season, the FPI gave BYU just a 24% chance to win this game. Over the course of the season, BYU’s odds of beating the Utes have more than doubled, according to FPI.
In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. FPI now projects BYU to go 10.6-1.4. Below are the match by match predictions.
BYU’s odds of beating Arizona State dropped by 8% after the Sun Devils beat Oklahoma State on the road. Arizona State is the toughest remaining game according to FPI.
For the purposes of this article, we will define a “special season” as 11 or more wins in the regular season. Winning 11 games would put BYU in the Big 12 championship and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. FPI gives BYU a 55.1% chance to win 11 games or more and a 16.1% chance to go undefeated.
8 wins or more – 100%
9 wins or more – 98.9%
10 wins or more – 87.9%
11 wins or more – 55.1%
12 wins (undefeated) – 16.1%
BYU moved up three spots in the FPI rankings to 27 after the win over UCF. They fell a spot on the week to 28. Iowa State, which lost to Texas Tech in dramatic fashion last night, is still the top-ranked team in the Big 12 according to the metrics. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.
Starting 8-0, BYU had a 32.2 percent chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. BYU’s odds increased after both Kansas State and Iowa State lost on Saturday. In terms of conference title hopes, Colorado was the biggest winner of the weekend. The Buffaloes have a road trip to the conference championship game. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.
There are only four teams with a real chance to win the conference: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State and Colorado. Texas Tech, Arizona State and Cincinnati will need havoc to upset the standings to have a chance to play for the title.
With BYU having a strong record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn a big birth if they go 10 wins or more. BYU has a 57.9 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff according to FPI. This is the best chance in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff, according to FPI.