By james art 
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Elections in Florida will test whether the state maintains its newfound reputation as a Republican stronghold or whether Democrats make some gains by riding support for abortion and marijuana ballot issues and new energy Vice President Kamala Harris into the race.
Gone are the days when Florida was viewed as the ultimate swing state prize. After former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, former President Donald Trump won the state by a narrow margin in 2016 and then by a much larger margin in 2020. In 2022, Republicans carried all five statewide seats. polling state with a landslide lead.
Still, there’s a lot of hype surrounding constitutional amendments that could protect abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana, with both sides of each issue pouring millions of dollars into advertising. Democrats support ballot measures and hope they will boost voter turnout to give them at least a chance to stop Trump’s third straight Florida victory and prevent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott from winning a second term.
The only statewide office on the ballot is Scott’s Senate seat. Scott is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mercersell-Powell in a race that has been overshadowed by the presidential election and issues of abortion and marijuana.
Even if Trump and Scott win in Florida, Democratic Party Chairman Nikki Fried said the election would be a huge success if the amendments pass and the party flips enough seats in the legislature to take away the Republican supermajority.
“Look where we were in November 2022. We had the biggest loss Florida Democrats have ever had,” Fried said. “No one expected that we would even be having this conversation today, that the polls were showing that we were aware that there was even a possibility that Florida would be in the game. We were all counted.”
It’s an uphill climb though. The amendments need support from at least 60 percent of voters and enough money is being spent against them that they could raise doubts among voters who typically support the issues, said Florida-based Republican political strategist Jamie Miller.
“As a general rule, amendments pass if there is no real effort against them, and they fail when there is a real effort against them,” Miller said.
Miller also believes Democrats are motivated to vote against Republicans they don’t like, rather than being inspired by their own candidates.
“I see excitement against Donald Trump and against Rick Scott, but as a general rule of thumb in the state, the size of Florida is not enough to get you over the line,” he said.
Scott served two terms as governor, winning each with less than 50% of the vote. In 2018, he defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in a race decided by 0.2 percentage points. But Florida politics have changed. The last time Scott was on the ballot, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state. Republicans now have a one million vote advantage.
Scott, one of the richest members of Congress, has poured millions of dollars of his own money into the race, as he has with his previous three elections. Deeply spent and with little money coming in from national Democrats until the final few weeks of the race, Mercercell-Powell struggled to gain attention.
Although Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was not on the ballot, he spent time campaigning against abortion rights and marijuana amendments. DeSantis even used state agencies to fight the amendment, with the Agency for Health Care Management creating a website and airing television ads providing information about abortion, and the Department of Health trying to stop television stations from airing advertising supporting the amendment.
The abortion amendment would protect women’s rights to have an abortion until the fetus can survive outside the womb. Florida now bans abortions six weeks after conception, when many women don’t realize they’re pregnant.
A majority of voters approved medical marijuana in 2016. This year, they are being asked to legalize recreational marijuana. The marijuana industry has spent tens of millions of dollars on the campaign, while DeSantis has raised money against it and often criticized it at public events.
Very few, if any, of Florida’s 28 congressional seats are competitive, but the state will elect at least one new member of Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopoulos is the favorite to replace retiring Republican Bill Posey. He is being challenged by Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a heavily Republican district.
Republicans will maintain firm control of the legislature. Democrats will consider it a major victory if they distribute enough seats to eliminate the GOP supermajorities in the House and Senate.
One of the highly contested seats in the Legislature is held by Republican Sen. Cory Simon, a former Florida State football star and NFL star, who is being challenged by nationally known civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, who is a former partner of the civil rights lawyer right Ben Crump.
Brendan Farrington, Associated Press