Climatic changes are an overwhelming repair of the sea cycles of nutrients, say scientists at UC Irvine – UCI News

Ervine, California, February 4, 2025 – Computer models reveal how human -controlled climate change will dramatically rethink the critical cycles of nutrients in the ocean. In Works of the National Academy of SciencesThe University of California, Ervin researchers report evidence that seafood cycles – essential to maintain ocean ecosystems – change in unexpected ways as the planet continues to warm.

“Modeling studies suggest that when the ocean warms up, it becomes tighter, which can drain certain parts of the surface ocean of nutrients,” says Adam Martini, a professor of science and ecology of the earthly system and evolutionary biology and one of the leading Authors of the study. Although models suggest a connection between ocean temperatures and nutrients of the surface ocean, this is the first study that confirms the effect of climate change on nutrients cycles.

The Skylar Gerace graduate student team analyzes 50 years of ocean nutrient data collected as part of the World Hydrographic Investigations Based on Ocean Ships (Go-Ship). They found that in the last half century there was a major decline in phosphorus, a nutrient that played a key role in the health of seafood webs – in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere.

“There may be cascading effects in the Food Network,” said Geras, who explained how plankton – microorganisms that form the foundations of many seafood networks – rely on phosphorus as a source of food. “When the phytoplankton has less phosphorus, they become less nutritious, which can disrupt the zooplankton and the pace of fish growth.”

Surprisingly, the concentrations of nitrate – a nutrient that the team is expected to decrease – seem to remain stable. Nitrate is crucial for the functioning of ecosystems so that it is not in decline is a good sign, Martini explained. Nevertheless, nitrate concentrations can still reduce in the future as the climate continues to change. “But we don’t know that – it’s just speculation,” he said.

Martini emphasized the importance of programs such as Go-Ship when it comes to doing science in this way; Without sailor missions that collect empirical data on marine ecosystems, there will be no way to confirm whether what the climate models predict actually happens. For example, the models have predicted that there will be a decreased levels of nitrates in ocean water so far, but direct observations reveal that this is not the case.

“In general, it is really difficult to demonstrate a long -term impact on the climate on the ocean because there is so much variability and ours is already part of a small collection of studies that demonstrate these long -term influences,” Martini said. “You can rely on hand demonstrated long -term trends in ocean chemistry.”

Next, the team wants to quantify how the change in nutrient cycles affects marine ecosystems in both hemispheres, while climate change continues to develop.

“We strive to explore how this nutrient indicator refers to the broader ecosystem dynamics throughout the ocean, such as primary productivity,” Geras said. “This can further establish measurements such as ours as a complete indicator of observation of marine ecosystems, as the ocean continues to warm and stratified.”

The study was supported by grants from the National Scientific Foundation, the National Ocean and the Atmosphere and NASA of Martini and Grates from the DOI and NASA Biological and Ecological Studies Service of Professor Keith Moore in the Department of Science for Earth.

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