City, business leaders are worried about Trump’s changes in Santa Fe – Santa Fa New Mexican’s economy

Contributing to the fears, the chairman of the Mescalero Apache and the National Council of Navajo said that on Friday there were reports of tribes members who were suspended by federal immigration officials – at least one of them was checked in southern New Mexico. The tribal leaders called on the members to carry identification.

Gerberding did not know how the widespread rumors about immigration operations in Santa Fe began, but they said they were talking about the fears in the city and throughout the country about the potential effects of the Second Trump Administration.

Promised repression of immigration and proposed rates for imported goods from the largest trading partners in the country may have direct effects on locals and businesses, as well as the common economy of Santa Fu – creating a shortage of labor in industries such as construction and hospitality, An additional home increase prices and higher costs for food and other household goods.

Non -profit data shows that immigrants make up about 9% of the New Mexico population and an even higher percentage of Santa Fe residents, over 11%. More than 15% of the district’s workforce is composed of immigrants, the organization opened in a report published in the end of 2023. Immigrants of Santa Fu County have contributed $ 1.1 billion to the gross domestic product of the county, according to the report.

During a presentation at the Santa Fe Municipal Council Financial Committee earlier this month, the professor of finance of the University of New Mexico Rayle White has evaluated that between 3000 and 5,000 people live in a district without statutory residence, all of whom contribute For the local economy.

Just one week in Trump’s second term, it is not clear how much of his common campaign program will be implemented and how deeply the changes will affect the residents and business of the city, as well as the local authorities.

“We do not know what will actually happen until it happens,” notes city councilor Li Garcia, a Republican, at the Commission meeting.

Santa Fe’s Juggernaut is tourism, which puts tens of millions of dollars every year in city casings through gross revenue and accommodation revenue.

White said the city tourism industry is unlikely to be affected directly by the Trump administration policies, as wealthy tourists will continue to visit the city and spend money here. The city sees tourists from the entire income range, but its marketing efforts are aimed at those from the higher end of the spectrum.

Tourism Executive Director Santa Fe Randy Randal, who is currently a temporary city manager, said he did not expect problems with the city’s tourism level on Friday, but noted that the uncertain financial environment was never a plus when it comes to For travel plans.

Although the number of visitors may not be affected, those who work in the hotel industry are carefully monitoring the effects of Trump’s policy – especially as far as staff and delivery costs are concerned.

“In the conversations I had with the hoteliers, we are absolutely trying to impact our business from both tariffs and immigration,” Gerberding said.

Owners of businesses and other leaders in the industry are talking about how to comply with federal law while minimizing the effects of changes in policy on immigrants employees, he said. Speaking as an operator of the Hannah of Governors and Restaurant Del Charo, he said that immigrants were “deeply influential, in a positive way, to the success of our business.”

A stronger hiring environment in Santa Fe is likely to “make small businesses to hire workers,” White told city councilors, because how many restaurants and hotels rely on immigrant workforce.

The tariffs, he added, will almost certainly put a shock absorber to the local economy. Trump said he plans to put tariffs for goods coming to the United States from Canada, Mexico and China, starting on February 1st.

The scope of the proposed 25% tariffs and how long they continue to determine how significantly they affect the local economy and whether they are beginning to influence jobs as people are starting to buy less consumer goods, White said. If, in exchange for other countries, they impose vengeful tariffs, it can strike on the export industry in New Mexico in New Mexico, with Mexico serving as its largest trading partner.

Gerberding said local restaurants use beer, tequila, linden, lemons and avocado imported from Mexico. A 25% increase in costs will probably be transferred to consumers, he noted.

“If the price of the crown rises by 25% for the entire restaurant market in Santa Fe, it seems to me that the consumer will eventually pay the same 25%,” he said.

In the short term, said White, price increases will increase the city’s gross taxes, but as people spend less, revenue will decrease.

“The longer lasts,” he told the Tariff, “the more serious the consequences will be.”

Miles Conway, Executive Director of the Housing Builders Association in the area of ​​Santa Fe, said Trump’s policies can create a jump in the cost of raw materials used in construction – including timber, most of which comes from Canada, as well as water bodies and appliances – driving upwards up the cost of housing in Santa Fe, where the average price of the home has almost doubled in the last decade.

“This will have a really negative impact, especially on the workforce dwellings and the accessibility of the housing at the bottom,” he said.

However, he said that if the Congress renews some of the tax reduction that the nation saw during Trump’s first term, with the Law on Taxes and Jobs for 2017, which should sunset at the end of 2025, The construction industry will benefit.

The home construction industry can also make a hit from changes to immigration policy.

“Working abroad is absolutely the basis of the construction industry, not only in New Mexico, but of the whole country,” Konway said.

He was not sure if New Mexico could take steps to counteract the change in federal immigration policies, but said the state should take “dramatic” actions to balance the cost of building housing – including to put more state land on the The market and invest in infrastructure – if it wants to keep home prices in the state at least flat.

Municipal councilor Garcia, who runs the tire company of his family, Garcia Tires LLC, said that if the tariffs come into force and increase the prices of the goods, the city will have to increase the increase in its budget process this spring.

“Everything we buy as a municipality, our budgets will go” boom “, so we have to figure out how to soften this as best as possible,” he said.

Santa Finance Director Emili Ostro said that the city was carefully watching the news about the tariffs: “It’s a constant anxiety,” she said.

The budget shaping process for the next fiscal year is already underway. The bigger part of the total operational budget of the city – 70% – goes for salaries of employees. However, he said Acute, the increase in material goods will appear with potential effects, including the cost of construction that the city has been increasing in the last few years due to inflation.

If prices are being attacked, Ostro said that the city could postpone capital purchases as cars on a later date to try to save money as it did during the coronavirus pandemic when some goods were simply not available.

Oster and other employees said they were hesitant to make forecasts based on what Trump said his administration would do, given what they saw in his first term.

“Many things have been said that this did not happen the way they were originally described,” Ostra said. “We need to see the exact language of these hypothetical tariffs and this will give us something to evaluate.”