By james art CALGARY — Canada is on track to be the world’s third-largest wheat exporter for the second year in a row as production of the crop in the Prairie provinces continues to increase.
International data from the US Department of Agriculture shows Canada overtaking Australia for third place in the 2023-2024 crop and predicts a similar ranking for 2024-25.
Canada now trails only Russia and the European Union when it comes to wheat export volumes.
According to a 2024-25 forecast released last week by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the country’s production of all major field crops is expected to grow by 1.8% year-over-year and by 2.4% over the previous five years average.
These numbers reflect this fall’s harvest, which is now largely complete, and show the impact of improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions were not as severe as they were the year before.
But Canada also ranked third in wheat production last year despite the drought, as Australian farmers suffered their own weather challenges affecting crop volumes. Canada sent nearly 21.8 megatonnes of wheat to 65 countries in 2023-24, with the top five destinations being China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh and the United States, according to the AAFC.
Justin Shepherd, an economist with Farm Credit Canada, said while global rankings can vary from year to year due to weather conditions in certain geographic areas, Canada has generally increased wheat export volumes over time due to advances in agricultural research and genetics. of cultures.
“We actually saw a much smaller export wheat crop in 2021 because of a fairly significant drought on the prairies that year. But overall, as long as Canada is able to grow an average or above-average crop, we’ve seen exports grow over time,” Shepherd said.
World demand for wheat is also increasing. The USDA forecasts global wheat consumption in 2024/25 to increase by 0.6 percent, with increased demand from North America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Durum wheat, a variety of wheat used to make pasta and grown in Canada’s southern prairie provinces, enjoys strong demand from Europe and North Africa. The Canadian Grain Commission said Canada’s durum grain exports through the country’s licensed elevator system are up roughly 25 percent from last year’s figures so far this fall.
Wheat is a “thirstier” crop than other staples such as corn, rice and soybeans, making it more vulnerable to water shortages. The Washington-based World Resources Institute estimates that by 2040, nearly three-quarters of global wheat production will be threatened by drought and water supply stress caused by climate change.
But Stuart Oke, a central Alberta farmer and director of the Alberta Grains producer organization, said Canada continues to invest in crop research and development, which has allowed the country’s farmers to continue to increase yields over time.
“In Canada, we’ve worked very hard on our wheat genetics to withstand some of the drought stress that previous wheat varieties may not have,” Oke said.
“It appears that in Canada we have been able to continue to increase wheat yields and production despite some significant weather challenges in recent years.”
He added that Canadian wheat exporters are also benefiting from the lower Canadian dollar, which makes the country’s agricultural goods more attractive to global customers.
“Not only are they getting the best wheat in the world, but they’re able to buy it at a small exchange rate deficit, which just makes it more affordable for those buyers,” Oke said.
Agriculture as an industry remains governed by Mother Nature, and Oke said no amount of advances in genetics or crop technology can save crops if no rain falls. But he said Canadian farmers are eager to continue moving up the global rankings when it comes to wheat export volumes.
“It’s certainly a feather in Canada’s cap — especially Western Canada — to move into that third spot,” Oke said.
“We want to keep that third position both at the producer level and as an export market.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on October 28, 2024.
Amanda Stevenson, The Canadian Press