By james art 
Boise State fell to San Diego State 64-47 on Saturday. The loss, but kills the hopes of Broncos with the largest offer and presents a difficult battle to get top-3 seeds in the Mountain West tournament. In a season full of bowel hits for Boise State fans, the one was the one who hit the most deep. At first glance, Boise State turned a corner in the previous four games and started playing as a team from the top 25 in the last month, but on Saturday the performance fell out the momentum with which this team was playing. Let’s look at what went wrong, some thoughts with big paintings and what’s next for Broncos.
Where did things go wrong?
In the first loss of Boise State to San Diego State, Broncos were -2 in margin of turnover and -10 on boards. One of the keys to win my visualization was the scenario flying in these two areas. Create additional possessions by winning a recovery margin and a turnover margin. Broncos achieved this when losing on Saturday. Broncos were +1 in the turnover margin and +3 in a recovery margin. It didn’t matter. Broncos did the little things well, the efforts were there, and in the bigger part of the game the defense intensity was there. The loss on Saturday was a case of the ability of a team to take shots and the inability of a team to take shots.
Boise State fired a 33% rot of Aztecs, scoring only 18 points in the first half, including 29-5 mileage for the Aztecs, which covered more than 12 minutes of playing time through both halves. Credit San Diego State, whose protection is one of the best in the whole nation, Broncos could not create an easy look throughout the night. The possession after possession descended to take challenged jumpers or prayers to beat the clock. The game on Saturday emphasized one of the biggest disadvantages with this team: lack of shots creators.
Tyson Degenhart is one of the few broncos who can consistently receive his shot, but the Aztecs doubled him at any time he received the ball in the post, forcing him to challenge attempts or drive out to other players. Although doubled at almost every touch, Degenhart ended with team 17 points and 12 rebounds. Outside Degenhart, there was no bronze with more than 8 points. When the possessions fell apart, Broncos had no one they could get the ball to and make a game. Javan Buchanan flashed some of this ability in recent weeks, but the Naia transfer ended with 2 points and played only 14 minutes in the loss on Saturday. In the first game was Chris Locket. Who had a team of 16 points, but since then Locket has been cut off from the rotation and played only 4 minutes on Saturday. The offensive problems on Saturday seemed very similar to the loss in New Mexico on January 17th. Lobos doubled Degenhart, played with intense pressure on the ball, and laughing Broncos to beat them from the dribble.
On the contrary, the Aztecs constantly managed to insert when the possessions fell apart. San Diego State shoots 54% against Boise State, emphasized by Nick Boyd’s 24 points at 10/14 shooting. Boyd has constantly managed to create open glances from the dribble and put Boise State defense in conflict. Too often, Boyd managed to take his husband one in one and Broncos has no Magoon Gwath rim to anchor the defense when the boys beat. The lack of defense of broncos and the protection of the rim bites them again on Saturday. The team’s defense looked good for the big sections of the game, but when things got stuck for the Aztecs, someone would hit a shot to save them. This fact was emphasized in one possession in the second half. The bronze played defense of the elite team: the rotations were crispy, the ball pressure was tight and in 26 seconds San Diego did nothing. With the remaining 4 seconds on the clock of the shot, the Aztecs received a switch where Alvaro Cardensas kept a 7-foot Magoon Gwath. Aztecs threw him to the Guet, which placed it over Cardenas when the fired clock expires. 29 seconds of perfect protection, rescued by the fact that the Guet is 7 feet tall and can mark most of the Boise protection. The continuous defense and efforts of the Broncos team were solid, but the individual perfection of San Diego was exceeded the status of Boyz.
This list does not change overnight. The lack of Broncos lack of shooting and attack point Defenders are the disadvantages that this team will need to learn to overcome. In the out -season period, Leon Rice will have a chance to add athleticism and wheels protection, but so far Leon will be tasked with finding a way to beat more athletic teams with this list.
Boise State’s paths continue
One of the storylines of this season, which deserves more discussions, is the problems of Boise State when playing outside Idaho. Broncos are 3-5 in real road games and imitated in their three games down the Cayman Islands, including the Loss of the Q4 by Boston College. 3 of their 5 losses this year came with double numbers. For some reason, Broncos was much worse on the road this season. This was not always a problem for Broncos, last year Boise State was 7-3 in the real road games, and Mountain West’s winning team from 2022 was 8-3 in the road games. The advantage of the home court in college basketball usually costs 2-4 points, but Broncos are lower in matches outside Idaho with 6-7 points. The problems of this team on the road are what will eventually sink their season. If Boise State had found a way to win one or two of these road games, we would have talk about them as the biggest team. Instead, Broncos are out of the balloon and strive to win 3 matches for 3 days down in Vegas. Unfortunately, Las Vegas is not in Idaho. Broncos have three more road games, highlighted from traveling to Lawlor against Wolf Pack to arrange their woes on the road.
What is next?
With the loss on Saturday, the season ended? No, far from that. There are 6 games left in the regular season plus the Mountain West tournament. While Boise State’s greatest hopes are supporting life (more for a second), Broncos still has something to play as it is the maximum chances in the Mountain West tournament.
At this point, the conference has a clear top-5: New Mexico, Utah, San Diego, Colorado and Boyz. Broncos are 0-5 against these four other teams and 9-0 against the rest of the conference. Which means it is crucial to Boise State to avoid playing one of those other teams from the top 5 in their first game. Seeds 1-3 are guaranteed to receive a team from the bottom half in their first game, while the seeds 4 and 5 are obtained mutually in the first game. If Broncos wants to win three matches in three days, it will be much easier if one of these three is against the lower half of the league. Broncos is currently sitting in 5th and are a game of Colorado/San Diego for 3Rd at the conference. Broncos must complete strong, probably 5-1 to have a shot of crossing in 3Rd place. It starts with New Mexico on Wednesday.
The last time Broncos saw the lobes that it was humiliating 84-65 defeat in the pit that at one point saw that the lobes were leading with 29. S Severe ball pressure, doubling the post and laughing broncos to shoot. Boise State was only 5/24 out of three (and at one point 1/19 out of three) and had 17 turns. Leon Rice has three days to figure out how to create an open look against the pressure of the ball in New Mexico and the right guys who can create insult without turning. The good news? Broncos will return home to Extramile Arena. Boise State is 11-1 at home this year and has a chance to continue his home domination. Surprisingly, Kenpom is currently giving Broncos a 58% chance of winning, designing a 77-74 victory for them.
Broncos in a large update
As the season hit obstacles, there are many discussions about Boise State’s greatest hopes and whether they still have a chance or not. At the end of each article, I will provide a brief update where different experts in indicators and brackets have Broncos’s chances for the greatest:
The loss from San Diego was not a completely nail in the ark for Broncos, but it was the shovel that hit below 6 feet. The only chance Boise State has an offer for a big offer is 6-0 on the rest of the road, hoping that other bubble teams continue to lose, and pray that there are no bidding on the championship week. On Saturday, the committee released the top-16 in the middle of the season, which gives a certain idea of what the iteration of the commission’s values in the selection process. Unfortunately for Broncos, the Committee seems significantly evaluating the resumption indicators in favor of forecasting/quality indicators. Currently, Boise State has an estimated average of 47.3, suggesting that they are the quality of the bubble team, but their average summary is 66.7. The lack of profits from Marquee and many losses of suspects is to protect this team from the biggest picture.
Is Boise State completely eliminated by the most important disputes? No. But the chances of the biggest offer require victory and even then, this may not be enough. So far, fans of Broncos are better to turn their tournament hopes to running in Las Vegas.
Nathan Carroll is a part -time associate for Bronco Nation News and host TBA’s basketball podcast. Nathan works for Pro Football Focus as part of their data collection team specializing in FBS player data graphics. Previously, he graduated from the Boise State College with a specialty quantitative economy and worked for 5 years in the Boise State athletic department. Follow it on X at Nathan_26_
