Murphy’s Law: Can Harris Win Wisconsin? – Urban Milwaukee

Vice President Kamala Harris at her “When We Vote, We Win” rally in West Allis. The photo was taken on November 1, 2024 by Sophie Bolich.

Chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Ben Wickler is considered one of the best state party chairmen in the nation. And since he took office in Wisconsin in July 2019, Democrats have consistently won elections across the state, except Mandela Barnes‘ defeat in 2022 by Republican incumbent US Sen Ron Johnson. Wickler cited a lack of money from national Democrats as the reason for that loss and vowed that won’t happen in this election. And all signs point to Democrats outspending and outspending the GOP in Wisconsin this election cycle, with Kamala Harris runs more ads than Republicans Donald Trump.

For Democrats, the key to victory starts with Dane County. There are three reasons the county has become so important, Wickler explained in an interview with Urban Milwaukee: a growing population (the county has added 43,000 people since 2016), an increasingly high voter turnout (nearly 90% of registered voters in the district vote in 2020, overwhelming voter turnout) and an increasingly high rate of voting Democratic: Hillary Clinton received 70% of the vote in the district in 2016, while Joe Biden won 75%, as noted in a Badger Project story.

Republicans say they need to win at least 23 percent of the vote in Dane County to win in Wisconsin, and Trump narrowly missed that in 2020, taking 22.9 percent of the vote with the rest going to third-party candidates. Dane County could be fertile ground for liberal independence Jill Steinwhose campaign received help from Republican strategists. The 2016 Stein vote in Wisconsin, if it had gone to Clinton, would have ensured the Democratic victory here. The latest Marquette study by Charles Franklin found that 9 percent of respondents said they preferred third-party candidates such as Stein or Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The third-party turnout is unlikely to be that high, but as Franklin noted, those voters “could so easily tip this race one way or the other.”

The second key to victory, Wikler notes, is narrowing the Republican margin in the WOW counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. As an Urban Milwaukee Data Wonk columnist Bruce Thompson reported that the percentage of votes going to Democrats rose from 35% in 2012 to 44% in 2020 in Waukesha County, and from 33% to 39% in Waukesha County during that period. Washington County, however, has not seen a similar decrease.

Waukesha is especially important as the state’s third most populous (Ozaukee is 18th), but Wikler points to both counties as keys to victory. “If you talk to members of the Democratic Party in those two counties, you can feel the energy for Harris,” he says.

The third key to victory is winning the Fox Valley, one of the fiercest areas in this swing state. “Voters in the Fox Valley have tremendous power,” Wickler says. “The vote there will decide the congressional race and could help decide how the parties do in the state legislature and in the presidential race.” We are investing heavily there.”

Brown County (the fourth most populous state) is the largest part of this region and has not gone Democratic since supporting Barack Obama in 2008, Trump carried the district with about 52% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020.

But Wickler thinks the open race for the 8th Congressional District pits an OB-GYN against a Democrat Christine Lyerly against the Republicans Tony Weeda retired businessman who is endorsed by Trump could help boost Democratic turnout. Lyerly made reproductive rights a key issue in a year when abortion was seen as a serious issue.

The fourth factor Wickler emphasizes is rural organizing. “The Republican strategy is to increase the rural score,” he notes. “Biden didn’t give up any districts. He added electors in every rural district. We are organized in every county in the state.”

Wikler predicted the largely rural Driftless district in western Wisconsin could make national headlines, where he says the Democratic contender is Rebecca Cook can remove the current Republican president. Derrick Van Orden. “I think it could make national headlines,” he told Urban Milwaukee.

With Wisconsin’s legislative districts redistricting, Democrats now have an opportunity to increase their lead in the state assembly, and the party has candidates in every district. “There’s nothing more powerful than hearing directly from a candidate going door-to-door asking for your vote,” Wickler says. “It will increase Democratic turnout up and down the ballot.”

But Franklin isn’t convinced there will be tails from the bottom up. “I’m a little dubious,” he told New York magazine. “I don’t believe we’ll see more than about 10 or 12 gathering places that are really very competitive.” I just don’t think it’s going to get people to vote for president.

For Republicans, the strategy is the opposite: reducing the Democratic margin or turnout in blue counties like Milwaukee. While Obama won 67% of the vote in the district in 2012, that dropped to 65% for Clinton in 2016 and returned to 69% for Biden in 2020.

It seems likely that the Democratic advantage could be close to where it was in 2016 — or worse. As Franklin noted, “Democrats’ fears of lower black turnout or gaps with Hispanic voters in Milwaukee are well founded.” That means Democrats have to offset that loss with gains elsewhere.

Perhaps as important as Fox Valley the key swing areas are Kenosha and Racine counties, which have traditionally been working-class areas that Democrats can carry. Obama won Kenosha County with 58% in 2008 and 55% in 2012 and Racine County with 53% in 2008 and 51% in 2012.

But the rural areas of those counties helped turn that around for Trump, who won Kenosha County by nearly 2% in 2016 and by 3% in 2020, while winning Racine County by 4% in both elections. These are flagship counties whose presidential election can be mirrored across the state. Both parties know this and are working hard for these constituencies.

Polls for Wisconsin, other swing states and the nation show the race is essentially a toss-up. But the polls have fared badly since the rise of Trump, whose unorthodox style and disdain for democracy failed voters in unpredictable ways. “In 2016 we were over six points behind and in 2020 we were about four points behind,” Franklin noted. “Times Raises Biden by 11 Points.”

The only sure thing is that voter turnout will determine the outcome: whichever party is better for exit, the vote will prevail. Once again, Wisconsin is among a handful of states whose vote will decide the winner.