Up to 7,229 buildings across England are yet to be identified and some may never be identified, the National Audit Office (NAO) said, as it warned that completing the work to make all buildings safe at an estimated cost of £ 16 billion, may not be achieved in the next decade.
Campaigners have repeatedly criticized the slow progress of such work – known as remediation – in the seven years since the Grenfell Tower fire killed 72 people in 2017.
The NAO also warned of the need to ensure the cost to taxpayers is kept low and that developers pay under a new levy, which is not expected to start being collected until next autumn.
Presenting her budget last week, chancellor Rachel Reeves promised the government would “progress on its commitment to speed up the remediation of homes following the findings of the Grenfell inquiry, with £1bn of investment to remove unsafe cladding next year”.
The NAO report, published on Monday, said the impact of the unsafe cladding “extended far beyond the immediate victims of the Grenfell fire, with many people suffering significant financial and emotional distress”.
It noted that in addition to living in fear of fire, there are expensive remediation bills and some residents have paid for so-called wake-up watches to patrol the buildings while they wait for the cladding to be removed.
The NAO said the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) estimated that somewhere between 9,000 and 12,000 buildings would need to be rehabilitated.
The latest official data until the end of September 2024. show there are 4,821 residential buildings at least 11 meters tall identified as having unsafe cladding, up 50 from the previous month.
This total is estimated to represent more than a quarter of a million individual homes.
Of the 4,821 buildings identified, only half have started or completed renovation work.
The NAO report said: “The pace is a persistent concern and recovery across the portfolio is progressing more slowly than MHCLG expected.”
The department’s modeling projects a 2035 end date. to complete remediation of the lining, but the NAO warned that this would be “difficult to achieve”.
Among its recommendations, the watchdog said the department “should publish a target date by which it expects all affected buildings to be remediated based on its understanding of the number of buildings that need to be remediated and the speed at which it expects building owners and contractors to finish works”.
This should be continually reviewed to monitor “whether the date remains achievable as the portfolio progresses,” he adds.
Last year, the department brought its five remediation programs, including the ACM (aluminium composite material) programme, the Building Safety Fund (BSF) and the Cladding Safety Scheme (CSS) together into what it describes as a single remediation portfolio.
The watchdog also warned that the department needed to “manage the risks” to keep its £5.1bn cap on taxpayer contributions to rebuild the cladding.
While the total cost is expected to be around £16.6bn, the department’s estimates range from £12.6bn to £22.4bn, the NAO said.
MHCLG has pledged to provide funding for eligible buildings at a current estimated cost of £9.1bn, the NAO said, with the balance funded by developers, private owners or social housing providers.
The new building safety tax, to be paid by developers of new developments, is not expected to start until autumn 2025 at the earliest. and MHCLG has not yet confirmed payment mechanisms, the NAO said.
The report states: “To complete the remediation within the cap, MHCLG will need to work around the lack of certainty in terms of revenue generated by the levy (and potentially need to extend it beyond the originally anticipated 10 years to recover the necessary funds) and the ability of social housing owners to fund the remediation of their properties at a pace acceptable to residents.’
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, said “significant uncertainty remains about the number of buildings requiring remediation, the costs, timing and recovery of public expenditure”.
He added: “There is a long way to go before all affected buildings are made safe, and risks MHCLG must overcome if its approach is to succeed.
“Putting the onus on developers to pay and introducing a more proportionate approach to remediation should help protect taxpayers’ money.” Yet it also created grounds for disputes, causing delays.
“In order to stick to its £5.1bn cap in the long term, MHCLG needs to ensure it can recoup the funds through the successful implementation of the proposed building safety levy.”
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, said many residents were left “in the dark about when their homes will be made safe”.
He said: “The program is behind schedule and MHCLG needs to pick up the pace to get it back on track. There is a long way to go to resolve the cladding crisis and the Government must take steps to better protect the taxpayer.
“There is an urgent need to make sure that fraud controls are working and that developers are contributing their fair share of costs.”
Building Safety Minister Alex Norris said: “The pace of remediation to make homes safe is unacceptably slow.
“This Government is taking action, delivering on our commitment to invest £5.1bn to remove dangerous cladding and ensure those responsible pay for the rest.
“This Government will protect tenants and enable regulators to take enforcement action against those building owners who do not take action.
“Since taking office, we have stepped up work with local authorities and regulators to speed up the recovery and will soon put together a plan to speed up the recovery.”
Campaign group End Our Cladding Scandal said: “The Prime Minister has said he believes he is responsible for building safety – we need to see action to back up those warm words.
“It is, or should be, a simple premise that people either know their home is safe or know when fire safety defects will be rectified.
“In opposition, Labor said no tenant should pay – but now they’re in power, the promises they’ve made over the last seven years look hollow as they focus on building more homes instead of ensuring homes they are safe for us.
“We know that being in government can mean tough decisions have to be made, but those decisions must be made with ordinary people in mind first and foremost, not the business interests that have dominated government thinking for decades. Anything less would be a betrayal of all the innocent victims of this scandal.