By james art 
Under the old playoff systems, both Alabama and LSU likely would have been eliminated from serious postseason contention. It’s a new era, though, and the 12-team College Football Playoff has made more games matter.
Even with two losses each, the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers are not only alive, but likely in control of their own destinies. That means this game is of crucial importance. In this Alabama vs. LSU prediction, we give our thoughts on the spread and total for Saturday’s matchup.
Alabama vs LSU Betting Overview
All Alabama vs. LSU Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, November 3, 2024. CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM spread
Choose them - Distribution
Alabama -2 - Money line
Alabama -130, LSU +108 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Time to play
November 9, 7:30 ET - Location
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, Louisiana - Forecast weather in Kik
75 degrees, cloudy, 7 mph wind - How to watch
ABC
This match is expected to be very close. CFN’s FPM has this as the straight pick, while sportsbooks have Alabama a two-to-2.5-point favorite.
MORE: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of 57.5 points and a spread so close, Vegas is expecting a hotly contested, somewhat high-scoring contest. The implied final score is close to 30-27 in favor of the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s odds of winning
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Crimson Tide still have a slim chance to win the conference. Alabama has a 50% chance to win Saturday at FPM, making the toughest remaining game of the year a real toss-up.
- at LSU: 50%
- vs. Mercer: 99.9%
- in Oklahoma: 81.1%
- vs. Auburn: 94.3%
LSU Win Probability
Conversely, LSU also has a 50 percent chance to beat the Crimson Tide at home. FPM still thinks the Tigers have a decent shot at making the College Football Playoff, but a loss to Alabama would really make that difficult.
- vs. Alabama: 50%
- in Florida: 89.0%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 74.9%
- vs. Oklahoma: 86.8%
Alabama vs. LSU Prediction
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has looked extremely confident this year, with the exception of two games out. In the first, the Tigers were able to get enough out of the game to outlast South Carolina. Against Texas A&M, however, it completely took the Tigers’ game out of the equation, and Nussmeier had the worst half of his career.
Which offense shows up for the Tigers on Saturday?
If Nussmeier has time, there is room against this Alabama secondary. In fact, the Crimson Tide are dead last in the SEC in expected points added per successful pass against, basically a fancy way of saying they give up a lot of explosive plays and those explosive plays go for a lot of yards.
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It seems like every week the Crimson Tide has a tough break on defense that leads to points. If the Crimson Tide doesn’t improve during their second bye week, you can guarantee Nussmeier will hit one of his big-play receivers for a huge touchdown.
Expect the Tigers to try to stay more balanced this week as well.
I have serious reservations about the Crimson Tide’s defense, although I like this coaching staff and expect them to tighten things up. I just don’t think it’s an elite part. It should be better, but by how much remains to be seen.
The question I have is if Alabama’s offense can score enough to turn this into a run. LSU is prone to some three-and-outs and failed offensive possessions, so if the pressure is on getting every shot, things could get dangerous.
I’m with LSU and its home environment. The Tigers get a lot of night games in Death Valley and this one should really help them. Can the Crimson Tide rise to the challenge?
I expect a great game, but I think I trust Nussmeier to limit mistakes more than Milroe. In a game where every possession counts, one turnover can be the difference. Back the underdogs in a shootout.
Forecast: LSU 38, Alabama 36
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