By james art 
November 3, 2024, 07:00 | Updated: November 3, 2024, 7:31 am
A number of “battleground” states will play a key role in determining the outcome of the US election.
Photo: Getty
Several states will play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the 2024 US election.
These are the “swing states”: so called because they will help swing the overall result either toward Democratic nominee and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris or away from Ms. Harris to her Republican opponent — and former president — Donald Trump.
Most states aren’t swing states and won’t change hands in this election — but safe states alone aren’t enough to put Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump in the White House.
Here are seven swing states to watch.
All but one were won by President Joe Biden for the Democrats in 2020, but all are hotly contested in this election by Mr. Trump.
Trump Vance campaign attendees in Glenmoore, Pennsylvania.
Photo: Getty
Pennsylvania
Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, confounding those who assumed it was a Democratic stronghold, as has happened in every election since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992.
Joe Biden narrowly took it back for the Democrats in 2020, but polls show the outcome this year is on a knife’s edge.
A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the US presidential election, with each state having a fixed number of votes based roughly on population.
Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all the electoral votes in that state (with two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska, where the votes are split at the county and state levels).
With 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, it’s a key target for both candidates.
But because of the huge number of mail-in and early votes that will need to be sorted and counted, the outcome won’t be clear for some time.
In 2020, the state was not called for Mr. Biden until four days after Election Day. –
Michigan
Like Pennsylvania, it was part of the “blue wall” of states that voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.
Mr Trump’s 2016 victory was narrow – by just 0.2 percentage points – but symbolized the scale of his success in winning working-class voters away from his opponent Hillary Clinton, particularly in a state that Barack Obama won by nine percentage points in 2012.
Joe Biden won the state again for the Democrats in 2020 by nearly three points over Mr. Trump, but polls suggest it will be much closer this time.
15 electoral votes are at stake here.
Kamala Harris at a campaign rally at the Wisconsin State Fair Expo in West Allis, Wisconsin.
Photo: Alamy
Wisconsin
It’s another blue-wall state that swung slightly to the Republicans and Donald Trump in 2016 before swinging back — by an equally slim margin — to the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020.
As is the case with Pennsylvania and Michigan, the outcome in Wisconsin may not be clear for several days, thanks to the volume of mail-in and early ballots that will need to be sorted and counted.
Ten electoral votes are available here.
Arizona
In 2020, Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996.
That represents a major turnaround from 2016, when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state by more than three percentage points.
Mr Biden’s victory was very narrow and this year the state again looks like it will be nail-biting, with polls suggesting the result is too close to call.
Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes.
Vice President Kamala Harris held a campaign rally in North Las Vegas.
Photo: Getty
Nevada
Nevada has been won by Democrats in every presidential election since 1992, but often by close margins — and this year it may be closer than ever, with polls showing the race virtually tied.
Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just over two percentage points.
Nevada doesn’t offer a huge number of electoral votes – six – but in a close race, a win here could be crucial to helping either Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump reach the White House.
North Carolina
It is the only swing state on the list won by Donald Trump in 2020, although the result was close, with Mr Trump taking 49.9% of the vote and Joe Biden 48.6%.
North Carolina has not been won by a Democrat since Barack Obama took the state in 2008, the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Once again, this year’s polls point to a close contest, with a precious 16 electoral votes up for grabs.
North Carolina is the swing state most likely to see quick results on election night, and as such will provide an early indication of how Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump fare.
Donald Trump held a rally in Atlanta.
Photo: Getty
Georgia
Joe Biden in 2020 was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Barack Obama never came close to winning, and Donald Trump won it by more than five percentage points in 2016.
The 2020 result was so close that a recount was conducted, with the result not confirmed until more than two weeks after Election Day.
Read more: Kamala Harris makes a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live
Read more: Donald Trump calls Kamala Harris ‘low IQ’ at Salem rally
Only 0.3 percentage points separated Biden from Trump.
Like North Carolina, the state gives its winner 16 electoral votes, and polls here, as elsewhere, point to another incredibly close race.
But polls are only snapshots, not predictions, and ultimately the outcome in places like Georgia could come down to which party can get more of its supporters to show up and vote.