By james art 
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – A mostly dry, warm weekend will continue across the region. In the tropics, we are tracking a subtropical storm and area of interest.
Tonight through Sunday night
Good Night is on tap across Big Bend and South Georgia. We stay dry with partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures drop into the mid-60s.
High pressure remains under control for the second half of the weekend. As a result, we are looking at another mostly dry, mild day. Highs on Sunday reach the mid-80s with a mix of sun and clouds. A homeless shower is possible, but most of us will stay dry.
The calm weather will persist overnight and Sunday. Lows drop into the mid 60s with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
Start of the work week
Our copy and paste forecast will continue to kick off the new work week.
Temperatures on Monday reach the mid to upper 80s with some sunshine. Isolated rain is possible again, but rain chances remain very minimal. Overnight lows settle into the mid and lower 60s.
Tuesday looks mild and mostly dry for Election Day. Highs are in the mid to upper 80s with some sun. We could see isolated rain on Tuesday night. Lows move back into the upper 60s.
Extended forecast
We could see an increase in moisture in our region in the middle of next week.
The models don’t agree much at this stage, but showers are looming for Wednesday and Thursday with partly sunny skies.
Highs reached the mid-80s both days, with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tropical update
On Saturday morning, Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the North Atlantic. This system poses no threat to the United States.
(story continues below)
In the Caribbean, we are observing an area of interest with a high chance of tropical formation. Invest 97L has a 70% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance in the next seven days.
(story continues below)
In an update Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression is likely to form in the Caribbean over the next few days.
The next name on the list is Raphael.
We’re too far into the specifics of the path, intensity, and timing of this system, but let’s talk about the current model data.
At this point, we usually look at two main global models: the GFS (US) model and the European model.
Both models show a tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week (November 6-7). However, there is some disagreement on the route and strength.
The GFS model shows a slightly stronger system moving further north. On the other hand, the European model shows a weaker system that remains further south.
We are watching it closely at this point, but (usually) the environment in the Gulf of Mexico is not as welcoming to strong tropical systems in November due to the wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures.
Hurricane hunters are expected to explore this area of interest on Sunday. We’ll keep you updated.
To keep up with all the latest forecasts and weather, follow WCTV First Alert Weather on Facebook and X (Twitter).
Click here to see all the latest weather headlines and here to see a first warning radar. Receive push notifications and view the latest forecast anytime in the free WCTV First Alert Weather app. Click here to download it now.
Interested in becoming a WCTV First Alert Weather Observer? Click here to join the team!
Copyright 2024 WCTV. All rights reserved.