By james art Seattle Mariners
2024 record: 85-77
Second place, AL West
Team ERA: 3.49 (T-1st in MLB)
Team OPS: .687 (22nd in MLB)
What went well?
As expected, the Mariners’ pitching was among the best in baseball; especially the starting group. Logan Gilbert led all of baseball in innings pitched with 208 ⅔ frames, and his 3.23 ERA and 220 strikeouts show he has quality with quantity. Bryce Miller and Brian Wu — the team’s fourth and fifth starters to open the year — both posted sub-3.00 ERAs and look to be on the rise. Combine that with solid seasons from George Kirby and Luis Castillo and you have perhaps the most complete 1-5 in the sport. The Mariners also got a solid season from closer Andres Munoz with a 2.12 ERA and 77/26 K/BB in 59 1/3 innings, and Colin Snyder came out of nowhere with a 1.94 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings against 13 walks .
The offense mostly struggled, but there were some decent offensive seasons for Seattle in 2024. Victor Robles was traded from Washington and became the Mariners’ top hitter with a .320 average, 30 stolen bases and an .867 OPS in 77 games. Cal Raleigh passed Mike Piazza for the most homers by any catcher in his first four seasons with 93, and 34 of those round trippers came in 2024 with even 100 RBI. And while Julio Rodriguez had his ups and downs in 2024 — more on that in a second — he managed to produce 20 homers and 24 stolen bases while playing sensational defense in center field.
What went wrong
The Mariners were 44-31 at one point and built a 10-game lead in the division. They ended up blowing that lead in a few short months, firing longtime manager Scott Servais and missing the playoffs for the 22nd time in 23 seasons. That fault is almost entirely on offense, and no team hit more than Seattle with 1,625 in 2024. Mitch Garver was a disaster in his first year in Seattle with a .627 OPS and went from full-time hitter to backup catcher by the end of the season. Mitch Haniger’s return to Seattle saw him slash .208/.286/.334, and Jorge Polanco needed a hot streak just to get to 16 homers and a .651 OPS. The team made trades at the deadline to help improve the offense with the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, and while both players helped more than hurt in their two months with the club, it wasn’t enough for the team to make the postseason for the second consecutive season. campaign.
And while the rotation was strong, the bullpen struggled in large part due to the absence of Matt Brash for the entire campaign and Gregory Santos, who was limited to just eight appearances due to injury in addition to disappointing seasons from arms like Gabe Spier.
Fantasy slants
– Rodriguez finished the year strong, but to say he disappointed fantasy managers at times in 2024 is quite an understatement. The power wasn’t there in the first half with just 10 homers and a .372 slugging percentage, and four of his six months he posted an OPS below .700. From the start of July through the end of the season, Rodriguez hit .312/.364/.528 with 13 homers in 58 games, and there’s simply no denying that he has as much talent as any hitter in baseball. Keep in mind that Rodriguez turns 24 at the end of December, and he’s absolutely worth a first-round pick in eligible leagues.
– After coming over from Tampa Bay for three prospects, Arozarena hit just .231 in his 54 games with a .377 slugging percentage, but he was able to hit at a .356 clip thanks in large part to being hit 11 times and leading off 22 strikeout baseball. He got off to about as bad a start as you can get with a .460 OPS through the first month of the season, but registered a respectable .784 OPS with 17 homers and 16 steals from May 1 onwards. Arozarena will always be a strong player, but the overall numbers always look solid. Expect more of the same in 2025, even if Seattle isn’t the most welcoming home.
– Most of Seattle’s offensive additions failed in some spectacular fashion, but Luke Reilly was an exception. He managed to hit 22 times while posting a .783 OPS – good for a 129 OPS+ – and was better than that number for most of the year; a terrible April (.505 OPS) and July (.504) weighed on four months when that number was above .820. There are significant swings and misses in his profile, and he can’t hit a left-handed pitch, but Reilly was well above average in terms of expected batting average, average exit velocity, and barrel percentage. Even granting that the numbers will be hurt by his need to platoon, there’s enough here to suggest he could be a viable fantasy player in the future.
– Woo’s 2.89 ERA in his second season is obviously impressive, but what was even more impressive was his 101/13 K/BB over his 121 1/3 innings. No player avoided walks better than him at 2.8 percent rate, but his 4.8 percent barrel rate allowed — 91st-best in the sport — and well above average strong strikeout rate (35.2 percent ) shows that he is one of the healthiest pitchers to match up as well. His lack of swing and miss makes him a little riskier than some others, but Woo offers safety due to his ability to fill the strike zone and limit weak contact. Just keep in mind that he isn’t likely to be among the league leaders in innings anytime soon, either.
– JP Crawford had a breakout 2023 season when he hit 19 homers, drew 94 walks and finished with an .818 OPS. He didn’t come close to those highs in 2024, and while injuries played a role as seen in him being limited to just 105 games, his .202/.304/.321 hitting in those contests was a big disappointment. His approach remained elite with a chase rate that ranked in the 99th percentile among all hitters, but he was in the bottom 25th percentile or worse in expected batting average, average exit velocity and strikeouts. Crawford is still only 29 and has a chance to find that form from just a season ago, but fantasy players shouldn’t bet on it.
Free key agents
Polanco ($10 million club option), Haniger ($20 million player option), Justin Turner, Yimi Garcia
Polanco’s option looked like a lock to be picked up before the 2024 season, but now it’s far from a guarantee. On the other side of the spectrum, Haniger will certainly pick up that player option, and Seattle may have to figure out something to keep him off the roster in 2025.
Team needs
The Mariners appear set to play the outfield with Arozarena, Rodriguez and Robles for 2025, but the team has question marks all over the infield and designated hitter. The team will be hoping for picks from players like Crawford, Garver and potentially Polanco; but this team needs significant additions to the attack if they are really going to challenge for the World Cup in 2025. Given how good the tilt is, it would be extremely disappointing if they don’t.