By james art In deep blue County Durham, the number of unaffiliated voters has increased over the past decade. The group is growing rapidly 7.5 times faster than registered Democratsalthough the election results in Durham are turning increasingly blue.
As Election Day approaches, Democrats are eyeing this growing group with a key question: Will unaffiliated voters in Durham continue to vote Democratic? Steve Rawson, chairman of the Durham County Democratic Party, said Durham’s unaffiliated voters are essential to his party’s goal of flipping North Carolina for the first time since 2008:
“Every single vote counts, and Durham is very likely to be the reason North Carolina turns blue,” Rawson said.
As of Oct. 31, Durham’s 128,154 Democrats still outnumber other voting groups, followed by unaffiliated voters with 96,777 and Republicans with 24,033. But the increase in unaffiliated voters in Durham mirrors trends across the state, where those voters now outnumber members of both major parties. Across North Carolina, unaffiliated voters are more likely to be younger and white, and the range of political opinions they represent makes them an important part of any winning electoral coalition.
Some Durhamites have been single all their lives. Eric Baker, 40, considers himself “pretty progressive,” but believes the two-party system contributes to the tribalization of politics.
He is suspicious of any attempt to be recruited into the Democratic Party. “How does this serve a functional purpose? I don’t want to waste my time making the party look better,” Baker said.
There are also more converted faiths. Lexi Terezakis, 27, has long been disillusioned with the centrism of the Democratic Party. A recent arrival in Durham, she broke away from the party due to its lack of action in the Gaza war.
“Nobody is advocating genocide. I have completely lost faith in the party,” Terezakis said.
However, both Rawson and Terezakis plan to vote up and down Democrats this election cycle and have consistently voted Democratic in the past. Professor Duke Mac McCorkle describes these types of voters as “shadow partisans” — unaffiliated voters who can nevertheless be counted on to vote consistently Republican or Democratic.
“Very few unaffiliated voters are truly independent,” McCorkle said.
In Durham County, many of these unaffiliated voters consistently vote Democratic. Since 2014, the share of the Durhamite vote won by Democratic candidates statewide has increased by more than 10%.
Not all unaffiliated voters in Durham are liberal, however. Courtney Giles, the local GOP chairman, has spoken to many unaffiliated voters who identify as conservative.
“Durham is also a very progressive place,” she added. “You have to be pretty brave to register as a Republican.”
McCorkle believes that younger people will continue to defect from the major parties at higher rates until both parties nominate younger candidates.
“There’s a bill here at some point,” he said. “Younger unaffiliated voters are clearly a problem.”
Until that payoff comes, both parties will continue to court unaffiliated voters. Giles and her colleagues are urging local conservatives to re-register as Republicans. Rawson and the Durham Democrats are deliberately canvassing the doors of unaffiliated voters. He thinks many are either persuasive or reliable Democratic voters, but less engaged and enthusiastic than the average Democrat.
“The question is not who are they voting for, but will they vote?”
Above: Voters cast their ballots during early voting at the Karsh Alumni Center. Photo by Kulsoom Rizavi — The 9th Street Journal