By james art In presidential elections, a swing state or battleground state in presidential elections is any state that can be won by either party. As evidenced by the number of campaign visits candidates have made to North Carolina, it’s clear that this could be a deciding factor in the race for the White House in 2024.
Although North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2008 and has voted almost exclusively Republican, polls show the race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is a tight one, and both campaigns have noticed.
Before dropping out of the race, President Joe Biden made it a point to make several stops in the Tar Heel state, and after clinching the Democratic nomination, Harris continued that trend. Trump has made stops in Charlotte, Fayetteville, Asheboro and Greensboro.
A poll published by The Washington Post last week showed Trump with 50 percent of likely voters, compared to 48 percent for Harris. With the countdown to Election Day less than 30 days away, more recent polls conducted by High Point University, The New York Times and CNN show Trump and Harris tied.
To keep the state red, Trump’s campaign will rely on history and the history of rural voters. To turn the state blue, Harris will have to rely heavily on the black vote, much like President Obama did in 2008. The 2016 and 2020 numbers show the Republican hold on the state is weakening. In 2016 Trump won NC by three percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point. In 2020, NC was also the only state where Trump won with less than 50% of the popular vote.
The Washington Post reports that six in 10 white likely voters in North Carolina support Trump and eight in 10 black likely voters support Harris. When looking at voters by location, 54% of voters in the eastern part of the state support Trump by 54%. Harris has the support of 55% of voters in the Charlotte area and 59% of voters in the Raleigh-Durham area.
Forsyth County is expected to follow suit with other metropolitan areas in the state. Past election trends tell us that Forsyth County is traditionally blue. In 2020, Biden finished with 56% of the popular vote compared to just 42% for Trump. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton finished with nearly 53% of the popular vote, while Trump finished with less than 43%.
When looking at the current gubernatorial race between (D) Josh Stein and (R) Mark Robinson, most polls show Robinson trailing by more than 20 percentage points. But it is important to note that in NC, the gubernatorial race does not always indicate who will win the NC presidency. For example, in 2020, even though Governor Roy Cooper, who is a Democrat, defeated Dan Forrest, who is a Republican, Trump still carried the state.
While pundits try to predict who will win, polls cannot predict the future. The only way to ensure that your voice is heard and that the candidate of your choice has a chance is to get out and vote. Early voting in North Carolina begins on Thursday, October 17th and ends on Saturday, November 2nd. Election Day is Tuesday, November 5.
For more information, including sample ballots, a list of early voting sites and more, visit