By james art Pro Picks is a weekly column in which AP Pro Football writer Rob Maadi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks go here.
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A first-place showdown, five road favorites and an old Super Bowl rematch highlight the NFL’s Week 9 schedule.
The NFC North will be on the line when the Detroit Lions (6-1) visit the Green Bay Packers (6-2) on Sunday. The Lions handed Minnesota their first loss of the season in a battle for first place two weeks ago.
The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) are a surprise favorite on the road at Seattle (4-4) in an NFC West matchup. The Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers are locked in a three-way tie for first place with the Rams right behind them.
The injury-depleted Buccaneers (4-4) visit the Chiefs (7-0) on Monday night without several key players in the lineup. Tampa Bay has lost three of four. The teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago, with Tom Brady leading the Buccaneers to a 31-9 victory that prevented Kansas City from repeating.
Pro Picks don’t give Tampa Bay much of a chance.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) runs out of the pocket for a first down against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024, in Tampa. Credit: AP/Chris O’Meara
Tampa Bay (4-4) at Kansas City (7-0)
Line: Bosses minus 9
The Chiefs have won 13 straight and are still not quite clicking offensively. Patrick Mahomes played better in his first game with new receiver De’Andre Hopkins. Now they’ll have an opportunity to shine a light on the NFL’s third-worst defense. The Buccaneers have allowed 33.4 points per game over the last four and have given up 387 yards per game this season. Poor defense kept Baker Mayfield from winning more games. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers can move the ball. Mayfield can’t afford any more picks this week, and Tampa Bay’s three-headed rushing attack needs to control the clock and keep Mahomes off the field.
BEST BET: CHIEFS: 33-20
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Seattle (4-4)
Line: Rams minus 2
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024, in Detroit. Photo: AP/Carlos Osorio
The Seahawks have lost four of five after a 3-0 start, including a lopsided loss at home last week to Buffalo. The Rams had their bye after an impressive win over Minnesota last Thursday. Matthew Stafford and the offense started with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Naqua. Seattle has the league’s No. 1 passing offense behind Geno Smith, but Kenneth Walker III has yet to get into the lane. The Rams are 0-3 against the spread on the road this season. The Seahawks are 1-4 against him at home this season.
UPPERCUSSION SPECIAL: SEAHAWKS: 24-23
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Line: jets minus 1 1/2
Aaron Rodgers and the struggling Jets continue to receive respect from oddsmakers. Despite losing five straight games, they are favored against the AFC South leading Texans. Houston’s defense presents another tough challenge for Rodgers, Davante Adams and the rest of New York’s lagging offense. The Texans need to do a better job protecting C.J. Stroud, who is taking too many hits. Houston lost receiver Steven Diggs to a season-ending knee injury, increasing the need to run the ball with Joe Mixon. This should be a low-scoring game with two of the NFL’s top four defenses going head-to-head.
JICKY: 19-16
Washington (6-2) at New York Giants (2-6)
Line: Commanders minus 3 1/2
Jaden Daniels saved Washington from defeat with a Hail Mary pass against Chicago, and the NFC East-leading Commanders are one of the biggest surprises of the season. They can’t afford an upset against the superior Giants if they want to win the division. The Giants have won just four of their last 20 games against NFC East opponents. But Daniel Jones is 5-2-1 in his career against Washington. The Giants played inspired and battled Pittsburgh until the end on Monday night. Such an effort can lead to victory. The Commanders are 6-0-1 against the spread since Week 2. The Giants are 4-1 against them in their last five games against Washington. Something has to give.
COMMANDER: 22-20
Dallas (3-4) at Atlanta (5-3)
Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2
If the Cowboys want to turn their season around, it has to start in Atlanta. They have a struggling defense that desperately needs Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Darron Bland back. Dak Prescott needs to protect the ball better, and Dallas needs to find a way to run the ball more effectively. Kirk Cousins helped the Falcons control the NFC South thanks to two great performances against Tampa Bay. Still, Atlanta was fickle. The Falcons lost by 20 at home to Seattle two weeks ago and the Cowboys are pretty desperate.
COWBOYS: 27-26
Las Vegas (2-6) at Cincinnati (3-5)
Line: Bengals minus 7
Time is running out for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to turn things around. They got beat at home by the Eagles, but the Raiders are a bad football team. They don’t have a rushing game and Gardner Minshue is not a QB who can carry the offense. If Tee Higgins returns, it will be another boost for Cincinnati’s offense. The Raiders are 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 games, but 0-6 against it in their last six against the Bengals.
BENGALI: 27-18
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Cleveland (2-6)
Line: Chargers minus 2
Justin Herbert has found a strong connection with Ladd McConkie, the running game is working for the Chargers behind JK Dobbins and the defense is top 10. The Browns have been rejuvenated by Jameis Winston, who threw for 334 yards and three TDs last week in a comeback win over Baltimore. Cleveland is 1-9 overall in their last 10 games against AFC West opponents and 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.
CHARGERS: 20-17
New England (2-6) vs. Tennessee (1-6)
Line: Titans minus 3 1/2
This game features two of the three worst offenses in the NFL. The Patriots are last, while Tennessee is 30th. But the Titans have the No. 1 defense in the league. Mason Rudolph or Will Lewis? Brian Callahan’s offense should start, though the first-year coach could find himself with his choice at quarterback if Tennessee continues to lose and earns the first pick in the draft. The Patriots proved they’re no softies last week when veteran Jacoby Brissett stepped in for Drake May and rallied them to a win over the Jets.
TITANS: 17-13
New Orleans (2-6) at Carolina (1-7)
Line: Saints minus 7 1/2
Another game featuring two teams that have lost at least three quarters of their games. The Saints struggled offensively without Derek Carr. The Panthers can’t do anything, whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bryce Young under center. The winner is more of a loser in this one because it’s not too early to look ahead to draft positioning.
SAINTS: 23-20
Denver (5-3) vs. Baltimore (5-3)
Line: Ravens minus 9
The Broncos have won five of their last six, rookie QB Bo Nix is at his best and the defense is ranked No. 3 in the NFL. Still, Denver is almost a double-digit underdog against Baltimore. The Ravens added another playmaker for Lamar Jackson this week, acquiring receiver Diontae Johnson from Carolina. Now they just need their defense to step up after another disappointing loss to Cleveland.
RAVENS: 23-16
Miami (2-5) at Buffalo (6-2)
Row: Accounts minus 6
Tua Tagovailoa returned last week. Now the Dolphins need to get back to winning ways. It’s going to be tough to start that streak in Buffalo. Josh Allen and the Bills dominated Seattle on the road, extended their lead in the AFC East and proved again why they shouldn’t be overlooked in a loaded conference. The Dolphins were blown out at home by Buffalo in Week 2 when Tagovailoa suffered a concussion on a collision with Damar Hamlin. They have enough playmakers, including Tyreek Hill, to be competitive.
BILLS: 27-23
Jacksonville (2-6) at Philadelphia (5-2)
Line: Eagles minus 7 1/2
Jalen Hurts is playing his best stretch of football since he was the MVP runner-up in 2022, and the Eagles have won three straight to silence critics calling for coach Nick Siriani’s tenure. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson, who led Philadelphia to its only Super Bowl title seven years ago, needs to pick up a few wins to get off the hot seat. Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could have a big day against Jacksonville’s No. 29 defense. After holding Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 17 points, Philadelphia’s improved defense faces Trevor Lawrence and a short-handed offense that will be missing receiver Christian Kirk and traded left tackle Cam Robinson.
EAGLES: 27-22
Chicago (4-3) vs. Arizona (4-4)
Line: Cardinals minus 1
Caleb Williams and the Bears need to shake off the Hail Mary loss and get back to work. With D’Andre Swift running well, Chicago’s offense has balance. Williams needs to bounce back from the poor play and get back to what worked in the previous three, when his passer rating was over 100 in each. Kyler Murray was superb in the comeback win at Miami, and the Cardinals have won two straight to get into the playoff race. The Bears must find a way to slow down Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Chicago is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games against NFC opponents. The Cardinals are 0-5 against him in their last five against NFC North teams.
BEARS: 25-23
Detroit (6-1) at Green Bay (6-2)
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2
It’s a battle for first place in the NFC North between two successful teams. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level and the Lions have won five straight games. However, their defense is missing Aidan Hutchinson. They don’t pressure defenders enough without him. Jordan Love is back for Green Bay and trying to play through a groin injury. The Packers have won four straight and may need to rely more on running back Josh Jacobs.
LIONS: 29-23
Indianapolis (4-4) vs. Minnesota (5-2)
Line: Vikings minus 5 1/2
Joe Flacco’s return to the starting lineup hasn’t changed the spread, but the Colts are more of a threat with him than Anthony Richardson right now. The Vikings have lost two in a row and their stout defense has been giving up. Sam Darnold has posted a passer rating over 100 in six of Minnesota’s seven games. If the Vikings can avoid the penalties that plagued them in both losses, they will have success against the No. 28 defense.
VIKINGS: 27-24
Last week: Straight: 11-5. Against the spread: 8-8.
Total: Straight up: 83-40. Against the spread: 65-56-2.
Primetime: Live: 18-10. Against the spread: 13-14-1.
Best bet: Straight: 6-2. Against the spread: 6-2.
Special Disorders: Right: 6-2. Against the spread: 6-2.