Rob: The state of the presidential race – Daily Independent

Robert Robb

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By Robert Robb

Discontent has settled on partisan Democrats and Republicans and independent Never Trumps. They claim they don’t understand why Kamala Harris hasn’t removed Donald Trump at this point in the campaign and are full of things she did wrong or wrong.

It’s largely a massive overreaction to small changes in polling margins of error. It’s supposed to indicate that Harris’ campaign is stalling, or even that Trump is gaining momentum. In reality, polls are not accurate to this level of accuracy, even when done in the best way possible. At this point, all the polls tell us the race is extremely tight, nationally and in the battleground states.

Moreover, to a large extent, the discontent reflects a remarkable case of political amnesia. What’s surprising isn’t that Harris hasn’t taken Trump down by now. What is surprising and remarkable is that she is competitive and has a solid chance to win.

Let’s turn back the clock to when Joe Biden dropped out of the race, which was just over three months ago. The presidential outlook for Democrats was bleak.

This is due only in part to the perception among a critical mass of the electorate that Biden is too weak for office. There was also a critical mass of voters who were dissatisfied with the performance of the Biden administration. The first one went as Biden stepped aside. The latter remains a powerful force in this election.

At the time, Harris’s public standing was not very good. She was hardly considered a formidable political figure.

Yet in just over three months, she has consolidated Democratic support behind her candidacy, crossed the president’s credibility threshold in a debate with Trump, raised huge sums of money and has a solid chance of winning. This is a stunning political achievement in a very short period of time.

Arizona offers an illustrative case study. In 2012, the Republican Party’s registration advantage over Democrats was 5.4 percentage points. Mitt Romney won the state by 9 percentage points. In 2020, when Biden won the state by an eyelash, Democrats had narrowed the registration deficit to 3 percentage points.

In 2024, the GOP advantage has swelled to 6.8 percentage points. Yet the polls make for a race. This is stunning. In 2024, the vice president under the disappointing Biden administration should have zero chance of overcoming a nearly 7 percentage point registration deficit. Still, Harris has a chance.

Misplaced discontent has a different origin. Partisan Democrats believe the Biden administration’s performance should be popular and blame bad messaging for not being a wave Harris can ride to the presidency. Never Trump Republicans and independents believe Trump’s coup attempt and the hateful way he practices politics should be disqualifying, and would be if conveyed correctly. What both miss is how powerful a political force discontent with the Biden administration remains.

There was no overwhelming support from the broader electorate for the high-spending industrial policies of the Biden administration. Domestically, inflation is the main economic concern, and the Biden administration’s big spending programs are a big factor in that.

It was the first outbreak of rampant inflation in four decades. And inflation has not been tamed. It seems to be holding at around 2.5% rate. That’s still enough to make people feel as if their standard of living has eroded, even if wage increases are now slightly faster than the rate of inflation.

The failure to withdraw from Afghanistan has become emblematic of the Biden administration’s handling of foreign policy. There is a sense, again among a critical mass of the electorate, that the world is becoming increasingly dangerous for the United States and the Biden administration doesn’t know what to do about it.

One of the calls from the disaffected is for Harris to be more specific about what she would try to do as president. Harris is trying to assemble a coalition that includes Bernie Sanders progressives and Reagan conservatives who can’t stomach Trump. They want to hear a different and conflicting set of specifics from Harris.

Biased Democrats want to hear her extol the virtues of the Biden administration’s policies and promise more of the same. Never Trump Republicans and independents want her to hint at an understanding that there has been overreach in the Biden administration and indicate that she will chart a more centrist course. As a matter of political calculation, a degree of ambiguity is necessary to hold this coalition together through the election.

It may also be that Harris isn’t entirely sure how he will govern as president. It is safe to assume that she shares the Democrats’ general commitment to moving the political economy of the United States toward that of a European-style social democracy. But there are different speeds at which a president can try to move in that direction, and different intensity of opposition depending on the speed.

Until three months ago, Harris thought he was running for vice president. Of necessity, her singular focus since then has been on building an Electoral College majority, and she has put it within reach. Not surprisingly, a detailed political agenda lags behind. And what she ultimately decides to tackle will be shaped and constrained by what kind of Congress the electorate bequeaths her.

I share the opinion of the Never Trump Republicans and independents that his coup attempt and the hateful way he practices politics should be disqualifying. That with Trump on the ballot, political considerations should take a back seat.

There is a consistent segment of the center-right electorate that sees the election this way. Given the dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, a traditional Republican candidate would run in a race against that administration’s vice president. Trump is creating headwinds himself.

However, there is a limit to the number of center-right voters willing to set aside substantive political objections to what the Biden administration has done and what the Harris administration is likely to try. Never Trump Republicans and independents tend to discount how much center-right voters are being asked to swallow to vote for Harris.

Powerful competitive forces are at work in these elections. To the extent that this is a referendum on the Biden administration, Trump is winning. To the extent that this is a referendum on Trump’s second term, Harris wins. And, of course, the two referendums are held at the same time.

In just three months, Harris put the Democratic nominee back in the game. The Democrats introduced a superior ground game for the end game.

Win or lose, Harris played the politics she was given remarkably well. Given the dissatisfaction with the administration she served as vice president among a critical mass of voters, there was no magic formula for sealing the election before the votes were cast. Ultimately, dissatisfaction is a product of unrealistic expectations.

Editor’s note: Robert Robb writes about politics and public policy Understeg. Contact him at [email protected]. Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcome [email protected].