By james art It was all about the big games Sunday.
In Green Bay, the Packers beat the Houston Texans 24-22 on a last-second field goal. Meanwhile in the NFC North, a near perfect performance by Jared Gough and the Detroit Lions handed the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season on Jake Bates’ 44-yard field goal in the final minute for a 31–29 victory. In Santa Clara, the Kansas City Chiefs stayed undefeated with a 28-18 win over the San Francisco 49ers, but Patrick Mahomes now has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (six).
Overall, these results helped shape the NFL playoff picture that will be looked at every week the rest of the way.
Everything will be updated after Sunday night football and Monday Night Football games. In addition, all playoff probabilities are provided by The Athletic’s model.
number 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 6–0, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 7
Playoff Probability: 99% (Courtesy of The Athletic)
The Chiefs are far from looking pretty offensive, but they keep winning. On a day where Mahomes threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns, Kansas City beat the 49ers. The Chiefs now face the Las Vegas Raiders before returning home for meetings with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos.
number 2: Houston Texas
Record: 5–2, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff Probability: 94%
Despite the loss in the last game in Green Bay, the Texans remain the second seed regardless of whether the Baltimore Ravens win in Tampa on Monday night because of the conference record.
number 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 5–2, first place, AFC North
Opponents remaining over .500: 5
Playoff Probability: 74%
Pittsburgh entered Sunday night with a share of first place in the AFC North along with the Ravens before beating the Jets on Sunday night with Russell Wilson under center.
number 4: Buffalo Bills
Record: 5–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff Probability: 95%
Buffalo continued to extend its lead in the AFC East with a win over the Tennessee Titans. Amari Cooper fit right in, with his first catch in a Buffalo uniform being a touchdown. For the Bills, it’s more about seeding than anything else.
number 5: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 4–2, second place, AFC North
Opponents remaining over .500: 7
Playoff Probability: 88%
The Ravens play in Tampa on Monday night and a win would keep them in first place in the AFC North.
number 6: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 3–2, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff Probability: 79%
Los Angeles plays Monday night against the Cardinals, trying to win a second straight game after the bye. Unfortunately, they will likely be without Quentin Johnston and Joey Bosa, who are both questionable.
number 7: Indianapolis Colts
Record: 4–3, second place, AFC South
Opponents remaining over .500: 5
Playoff Probability: 28%
Indianapolis’ 16–10 win over the Miami Dolphins was far from impressive, but improved to over .500 with the Texans on deck. If the Colts beat Houston next Sunday, the teams will have split the season series.
In the hunt
Denver Broncos (4-3): After a win over the Saints Thursday Night FootballThe Broncos are in a playoff spot. However, they have a tough remaining schedule, including two games with the Chiefs while also visiting the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4): After starting 1–4, the Bengals won two straight against the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati is back in contention, with home games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Raiders on the slate before the trip to Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins (2-4): After a loss to the Colts, Miami has minimal margin for error. However, with Tua Tagovailoa potentially back for Week 8, the Dolphins have a chance to bounce back after his long absence
number 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 5–1, first place, NFC North
Opponents remaining over .500: 8
Playoff Probability: 91%
Detroit went on to hand Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Lions now hold the NFC North lead in a tiebreaker with the Titans with one win on deck.
number 2: Washington commanders
Record: 5–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 5
Playoff Probability: 67%
Washington looks real. After losing a tight contest in Baltimore, the Commanders smoked the Carolina Panthers to maintain their lead in the NFC East. Then, the Bears in an affair at the end of the Week 8 window.
number 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4–2, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff Probability: 70%
Tampa Bay plays Monday night at home against the Ravens, trying to slow down the tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
number 4: Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4–3, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff Probability: 21%
After three straight losses, it looked like Seattle might slide into the abyss. Instead, an impressive win over the Atlanta Falcons puts the Seahawks in a good position heading into Week 8.
number 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 5–1, runner-up, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 7
Playoff Probability: 90%
Minnesota finally lost, and it stung. The Vikings couldn’t hold a late one-point lead over the Lions at home and in the process relinquished first place in the division. Minnesota now heads to Los Angeles on Thursday to face the Rams.
number 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 5–2, third place, NFC North
Opponents remaining over .500: 6
Playoff Probability: 68%
Green Bay didn’t play its best Sunday against the Texans, winning despite three fumbles. Brandon McManus saved the Packers with a game-winning 45-yard field goal as time expired.
number 7: Chicago Bears
Record: 4–2, fourth place, NFC North
Opponents remaining over .500: 8
Playoff Probability: 40%
Chicago started 1–2 but won their last three games against the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars. After the bye, the Bears face the Commanders in what should be a good test for both teams.
In the hunt
Philadelphia Eagles (4–2): After beating the Giants, Philadelphia still has plenty of questions, but also sits two games over .500 in a bad division. The Eagles defense allowed just 119 yards on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons (4–3): Atlanta had a chance to put pressure on the Buccaneers with a win. However, a complete loss by Seattle gives Tampa Bay a chance to win a game and take sole possession of first place in the NFC South on Monday night.
Dallas Cowboys (3–3): Dallas is on a bye week after being humiliated by the Lions at home. After their break, the Cowboys will head west for a game against the San Francisco 49ers.