By james art 
Washington (AP) – 25% of the tax that President Donald Trump plans to hit imports from Canada and Mexico immediately after Saturday can increase the price of everything from gasoline and pickups to Super Bowl Party Guacamole Dip.
Tariffs will also invite revenge. Doug Ford, Ontario’s Prime Minister, has already sworn to counter -population by pulling American alcoholic shelves in the Canadian province – without idle threat; Canada is the world market # 2 for distilled spirits in America (behind the 27-national European Union).
Trump’s tariffs threaten to blow up the trade agreement that he himself negotiates with America’s neighbors in his first term. His agreement in the United States-Mexico-Canada-“The Fighter, Most Balanced and Useful Trade Agreement we have once signed in law,” Trump-Trump-Ne had to bring predictability of trade in North America, giving the enterprises to the entities to Make investment.
But when it comes to the self -proclaimed “tariff man”, “Trump and his passion for placing taxes on foreign goods, nothing is predictable and nothing is ever settled.
“The tariffs of these levels and in this range would effectively destroy the agreement that Trump himself has negotiated and always boasts,” says Scott Lyncome, a commercial analyst at the Libertarian Institute of Cato.
The president says 25% of the taxes are intended to put pressure on the two neighbors of America to do more to stop the flow of undocumented immigrants and fentanyl in the United States.
Michael Robinet from S&P Global Mobility and many other analysts suspect that tariff threat is also designed to make Canada and Mexico go with America’s requests for changes to USMCA when it appears for renewal next year.
Robinet, CEO of Automotive Consulting at S&P Global, said it doubts Trump would continue with 25% tariffs for the Canadian and Mexican imports, which he calls a “shock to the system” would freeze the North Americ economy through ” The tariff winter. ” way.
Trump pressed Mexico and Canada to agree to USMCA five years ago, partly to restrict the major commercial deficit of the United States – the difference between what the US is selling and what it buys.
It didn’t work out this way.
The US deficiency in Mexico’s goods has expanded from $ 106 billion in 2019 to $ 161 billion in 2023 (the last full year for which the numbers are available). This is partly because Mexico replaced China, locked in a continuing trade war with the United States, as a source of many US imports – furniture, textiles, shoes, laptops, computer servers.
The trade difference in goods with Canada is also ballooned: from $ 31 billion in 2019 to $ 72 billion in 2023, the deficit largely reflects the import of Canadian energy in America.
“USMCA has not met the goals that Trump has set for it. Our commercial deficit with Canada and Mexico is greater than it was significant, “says Lori Wallah, director of the Trade Program for rethinking the American Economic Liberties project and longtime critic of free trade in America.” Many jobs have been torn off in Mexico from USMCA. “
When USMCA appears for a renewal next year, the US is expected to insist on rules that would do more to promote factories to produce in the United States. And he can seek repression of Chinese goods sent through Mexico to the United States to avoid the rates Trump and President Joe Biden imposed on Beijing.
Now the United States is doing a lot more business – export and import – with Canada and in Mexico than in China. In 2023, US trade in goods and services with Canada and Mexico reached over $ 1.8 trillion, compared to $ 643 billion with China. Due to the USMCA regional trade, which it replaced in 2020, more products cross the rates for the borders of the region.
The threatened 25% tariffs cause acids in corporate meeting rooms. If Trump moves forward with his threat, the tariffs will rise from $ 1.3 billion to $ 132 billion a year in Mexico imports to the United States and from $ 440 million to $ 107 billion to Canada, according to the tax and consulting firm PWC.
And no one knows if Trump will really pull the trigger or how long the tariffs will remain if he does. “This is indeed thrown into this trouble of concern,” said Trade lawyer Chanri Navarro, a senior advisor at Baker & Mckenzie. “What the industry likes is security. You make decisions for production, supplies chain decisions, purchasing five years. Sd
Trump views tariffs as a repair-for most of what hurts the economy. He says they are raising money to reduce income and corporate taxes, encourage companies to move production to the United States and to offer useful leverage to press other countries and other issues.
Trump administration officials also claim that critics of potential tariffs should not consider them isolated, claiming that their other policies, including reducing taxes and facilitating provisions, will strengthen the economy.
Companies roll to prepare. Some bought goods and sent them to the United States a while ago to beat the tariffs. Others calculate how many costs they can transfer to their customers. “Unfortunately, this will affect many users,” says Dave Evans, co -founder and CEO of FICTIV, a San Francisco company that helps customers manage their supply chains in plastics and metals. “We saw this in his first term. The tariff is not fully absorbed by companies. Sd
Canada and Mexico are also reinforced. Chrystia Freeland, a former finance minister who represents Canada in USMCA talks, has called for revenge if Trump moves forward with tariffs. “Being smart means revenge where it hurts,” said Freeland, who runs to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “Our counterpoint should be a dollar for a dollar-and it should be accurate and painfully targeted: producers of orange orange florida, Wisconsin dairy farmers, Michigan dishwashers and many more.”
In the same way, Mexican President Claudia Shainbaum promised in November that “There will be an answer in kind for every tariff.”
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The writer of the Associated Press Josh Boak in Washington has contributed to this story.
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