By james art Duke football has never made the College Football Playoff, and Blue Devil fans have never had that thought in the back of their minds, as it has always been difficult to get into the four-team CFP setting.
But since the new playoff format now invites twelve teams, more mid-majors have the ability to do so, and the new format also rewards conference champions.
The new CFP format has the five conference champions as the top five seeds in order determined by the CFP committee. The remaining rankings go to the teams ranked 6-12 in the final rankings.
Duke opened the season with about an 8 percent chance to make the CFP according to ESPN FPI and has the same odds today. So is there a realistic route for the Blue Devils to sneak through?
It’s subtle, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But I think there is a somewhat feasible way for Duke fans to see their team in the CFP for the first time in history and in Manny Diaz’s rookie year in Durham.
This whole conversation could end by the end of Saturday, or it could continue. Duke faces its first ranked opponent of the season on Saturday at #22 SMU, who is 6-1 overall and 3-0 in the ACC.
Sportsbooks have the Blue Devils as 11.5-point underdogs at home with a scary +340 moneyline for a head-to-head win. However, SMU is an opponent that could fall right into Duke’s lap. The Mustangs rely on their offense to score around 40 points per game, and Duke has one of the best defenses in the country. If the Blue Devils can stop the Mustangs from scoring and finally have consistent offense on the night, a win at home is possible.
So what if Duke beats SMU on Saturday? Needless to say, all of this is irrelevant in a loss. But with a win, Duke will almost certainly enter the Associated Press poll for the first time since 1994, potentially in the top twenty. The Mustangs currently have about a 20% chance to make the playoffs, so if Duke can knock them off at home, that should raise the Blue Devils’ chances to about 15%-20%.
However, this is only the first step. Next week, Duke will head to Coral Gables to take on #6 Miami for what could be a turning point in Duke’s season.
Let’s say Duke is riding high after a home win this weekend against SMU, then faces an entirely different monster in the Hurricanes. But they have a similar makeup as SMU.
Miami is arguably the best offensive team in the entire country, but they’ve had some close calls with some not-so-strong opponents.
In the last three weeks, Miami came back to beat Virginia Tech at home 38-34, then somehow found a way for another miraculous comeback to beat California 39-38, and survived a one-score affair against Louisville last week, winning by a score of 52-45.
Let’s assume Duke finds what works on offense and its defense continues to be one of the best in the nation. Doesn’t Miami look pretty similar to SMU? Scores a lot of points and gives up a lot of points.
Those are two games in a row that Duke could rationally win, and if the Blue Devils knock off a #22 team and a #6 team on the road in the coming weeks, is it fair to say they’ll be in the top twelve?
I’m not sure if that will work and the road isn’t over even if Duke can pull off those two huge wins. The program will still need to win its final three games against NC State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Two of those games are also on the way.
But if Duke can win, it will more than likely play in the ACC Championship, which might be good enough in itself to make the playoff. And obviously, if Duke wins the ACC Championship, it guarantees them a ticket to the big dance.
Let’s not get out of hand. With everything that needs to go right for Duke over the next six weeks, especially with the inconsistencies the team has dealt with on the offensive end of the ball, that’s easier said than done. But I think it’s realistic to say there’s a rational path for Duke football to compete in the CFP this season.