By james art 
According to the main projection, the UK population increased from 67.6 million in the middle of 2022 to 72.5 million in mid -2032, reaching 76.6 million by mid -2047.
This suggests that net migration will be established at 340,000 annually from 2028 onwards.
However, if it is established at a higher level than 525,000 annually, forecasts change to suggest that the UK population increased to 73.8 million by mid-2032, not 72.5 million, and after This 81.4 million in 2047 instead of 76.6 million.
But if it is established at a smaller level of 120,000 a year, the forecast changes again, this time suggests that the UK population rises to only 71.0 million in 2032, after which it actually falls slightly to 70.8 Million to 2047
Use our new Project Projection researcher of the UK to correct factors such as life expectancy, average children of a woman and net migration to see what impact anyone on the future population can have
🔎 pic.twitter.com/d3z48d8kur
– National Statistics Service (ONS) (@ons) January 28, 2025
Another variable is fertility.
ONS uses a fertility measure called the overall rate of fertility.
This is the average number of living children that a group of women would have if they survive the age -specific fertility rate throughout their lives of a child.
The main forecast for the ONS population implies a total fertility rate of 1.48 children in the middle of 2022, falling to 1.41 children to 2032 and then climbing to 1.45 children to 2047.
Under a scenario with a low Fertility Rate (1.25 Children By 2047), The UK Population Is Projected to Increase More Slowly, Reaching 71 ID-2047 Rather Than 76.6 million.
The higher fertility rate (1.65 children up to 2047) again changed the projection to give a population of 73.0 million in 2032 and 78.4 million in 2047.
The various assumptions about life expectancy change projection, but only slightly.
The 1.5% improvement rate in the current life expectancy of men and women aged 0 to 90 years leads to a population of 72.5 million to 2032 and 76.8 million to 2042, while by -The level of improvement of 0.5% gives a prognosis of 72.5 million from 2032 and 76.2 million to 2042.
ONS also produces two projections based on variable groups: high population projection, where fertility, life expectancy and migration are higher than the basic projection; and the low population projection, in which all the same three factors are lower.
In the “high” projection, the population increased to 74.3 million by mid -2032 (compared to 72.5 million in the main projection) and then reached 83.6 million by mid -2047 (compared to 76 , 6 million).
According to the “low” projection, the population reached only 70.4 million by 2032 and then dropped to 68.6 million to 2047.
“Optional forecasts are important when we continue to see the uncertainty and complexity of population change,” according to James Robards, the head of population and household forecasts.
“In recent years, fertility continues to fall to historically low levels, international migration is at very high levels and mortality continues to change after the Covid-19 pandemic in life.
“All this makes the assumptions to determine more challenging and uncertain than in the past.”
The wide range of variant projections allows people to see “the potential consequences of higher and higher motors of population change,” he added.
“They give an idea of ​​what a type of population change (eg lower mortality) and multiple trends (eg lower mortality, lower fertility and higher mortality) may mean the future population.”