By james art The state’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent in September, the NC Department of Commerce said Tuesday.
It’s worth noting that job losses in western North Carolina were not included in the report, even though Hurricane Helena ravaged the region on September 27-28.
That’s because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of employers and households is conducted the week of the 12th of the month.
Economists said the initial round of people temporarily or permanently unemployed would appear in the October state rate.
The U.S. Labor Department’s weekly initial jobless claims report — released Thursday — offered a glimpse of how big the increase could be.
There were 9,251 new claims in NC for the week ended Oct. 12, along with 11,655 for the week ended Oct. 5. About 79 percent of those claims were filed by people in the top 25 counties in the disaster relief region.
The department counted 22,530 North Carolinians receiving state unemployment benefits as of Oct. 5. That number is expected to grow significantly over the next few weeks.
Economists do not foresee a nationwide spike in the unemployment rate similar to the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the rate hit a post-Great Depression record of 14.7 percent.
However, most western North Carolina counties could see a significant increase.
“The threshold to be considered employed is minimal — you only need to have worked one hour for pay or gain in the past 30 days,” said Mark Wittner, chief economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital. “To be considered unemployed, you must have actively looked for work during the same period of time.
“By this standard, the unemployment rate may not fully reflect the extent of hurricane losses.”
Wittner said Asheville could see a significant increase in unemployment “due to its heavy reliance on the tourism sector.”
“Furthermore, I expect more modest impacts on the overall unemployment rate.”
Wittner said a better economic measure of Helene’s impact “may be hours worked and earnings, both of which will be negatively impacted, though partially offset by repair and recovery efforts.”
“The personal income numbers are likely to reflect a significant loss, particularly due to the loss of housing use,” he said.
Details for September
As has been the pattern since early 2023, there was a significant retreat in September among the 10 categories in the private sector.
In the household survey, there was a total drop of 1,048 in the labor force since August, representing 656 more employed North Carolinians and 1,708 registered as newly unemployed and looking for work.
On a year-over-year basis, the state’s labor force grew by 0.3 percent, or by 15,094 people. This represents a net gain of 3,902 people listed as employed and an increase of 11,192 in those listed as unemployed and looking for work.
When people leave the labor force, they are no longer considered unemployed.
In the employer survey, there were a total of 8,000 monthly net gain jobs, all in the private sector.
The leading private sector net earnings are 6,800 in education and health services, 1,900 in professional and business services, and 1,200 in trade, transportation and utilities.
Meanwhile, there was a 1,500 drop in the leisure and hospitality sector with lower wages and a 1,000 loss in financial activities.
On a year-over-year basis, the state had a net increase of 59,900 private sector jobs (up 1.4%) and 18,700 public sector jobs (up 2.2%).
Extension of unemployment benefits
Gov. Roy Cooper issued an emergency executive order on Oct. 16 that nearly doubled the maximum weekly unemployment benefits — from $350 to $600 — for North Carolinians whose jobs were affected by Helene.
Among the 39 counties affected are Allegany, Ashe, Forsyth, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes and Yadkin counties.
However, the number of weeks of state unemployment benefits remains capped at 12 under a state law approved in 2013 by a Republican legislative supermajority. Only eight states have a lower weekly maximum unemployment benefit than North Carolina.
The NC Division of Employment Security estimates it could take between two and three weeks for affected individuals to see the impact in their weekly benefit checks.
Benefits for eligible claimants will be backdated to September 29, with adjustment payments issued for benefit weeks back to that date.
Workers who lived or worked in the 39 affected counties and are out of work because of the disaster will qualify for up to 14 weeks of federal benefits. These benefits will be paid through March 29 under the federal Disaster Unemployment Assistance Program.