By james art 
November 5, 2024
Tuesday morning Election Day coverage
It is still dry, but there are areas of fog and low clouds around the Chesapeake Bay and to the south. It will be very warm today and even warmer tomorrow, almost a record.
We will shift our focus to the new Tropical Storm Rafael. It was near Jamaica this morning and is scheduled to reach the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Computer models are almost as divided as the American electorate. One brings us much needed rain until Sunday and the other keeps us dry. Let’s take a look at this report.
Tropical Storm Raphael
Winds of up to 60 mph as it moves near Jamaica, where a tropical storm warning is in place. The forecast puts Rafael at hurricane strength before passing over western Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds reach 105 miles from the center.
National Hurricane Center update at 4 a.m. EST
- LOCATION…17.0N 78.0W
- ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
- ABOUT 265 MI…425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
- MAXIMUM TRIPLE WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
- CURRENT TRAFFIC…SHELL OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES
Estimated tracks
Computer model propagation
This is very important! Notice the collection pushing the storm near and inland around New Orleans. That would support the GFS pattern below bringing rain to the eastern US this weekend.
National Hurricane Center
This keeps the center of the storm south of New Orleans. I wouldn’t argue with the NHC, but it’s hard to ignore the potential for this to track north and inland.
SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS AND WARNINGS IN ACTION:
A hurricane warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, La Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and Isle of Youth
A tropical storm warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Ávila
A tropical storm watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
LOCAL TIME
Baltimore drought update
- No measurable rain since October 2nd = 34 days!
- There was a “trace” on October 4th and November 1st.
- Precipitation DECREASED -6.44” since September 1st
Morning time on the surface
Dense fog may be more widespread in the lower Chesapeake Bay, but there are pockets of fog and low clouds in central Maryland to start the day…
It is clearer to the north in southern Pennsylvania.
It will be very warm today thanks to increasing winds from the south ahead of a very strong cold front.
Election Day is already stormy from Houston to St. Louis and north to Chicago.
Afternoon temperature forecast
These numbers are nearly 15 degrees ABOVE NORMAL!
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY November 5
Sunrise at 06:39
Sunset at 17:01
Normal Low in Baltimore: 39ºF
The record 24ºF in 1998
Baltimore Normal High: 61ºF
Record 83ºF 1961
WEDNESDAY 6 NOVEMBER
The warmest day of the week
Morning lows
Afternoon highs
Baltimore record high = 80ºF in 2015
Forecast animations: Friday to Sunday
There is a VERY BIG DIFFERENCE between the American GFS model and the European ECWMF model. It all depends on what happens with TS Rafael.
I should note that the GFS has had an advantage over tropical systems in recent months.
GFS model forecast
This solution has a small chance of showers on Thursday with the cold front, but a solid burst of rain from Rafael. If that happens, it won’t be tropical at this point, just much needed rain in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Thursday morning
Rains from the cold front are dissipating.
Sunday morning
The much needed rain of Raphael’s remains.
ECMWF model forecast
This decision has a better chance of rain on Thursday, but nothing from Rafael… keeping this track in the Gulf to Texas.
Thursday morning
More precipitation with the cold front.
Sunday morning
No rain as this decision keeps Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico and NOT making landfall.
7 day forecast
After these warm days, the big question is whether Rafael can bring us rain on Sunday. I’m leaning towards the GFS model as it is similar to most computer model guidance…
The result will bring us much needed rain by Sunday morning.
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DATES OF FIRST FROST
Here are the average dates in Maryland and they match the advisories we saw last week.
Click on this image to see more details in Maryland and Pennsylvania.
FOUR SUPER MOONS FROM 2024
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PRESENTING MY MESSAGE ON DYSLEXIA
I know there are some spelling and grammar mistakes and sometimes other issues. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer problems I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to get an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had come this far without knowing and not to let it be a crutch going forward. It was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own correction. My computer’s automatic spell check sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in predictions. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.
There was no editor to check my work while I write and get it ready to ship in an appropriate timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when available. That might be AFTER you read this. I accept that, and maybe it proves that what you’re reading is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF