By james art 
A notable in-state Big 12 rivalry begins under the lights as No. 9 conference title contender BYU goes up against Utah in the Holy War. Let’s check out the latest match predictions from an analytical model that simulates games.
Utah was undefeated a month ago. Since then, it has lost four straight and is just 1-4 in the Big 12 title game it was projected to dominate in the preseason.
BYU is one of five remaining undefeated teams in college football, going 8-0 and taking over sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after last weekend’s loss to Iowa State.
Looking ahead to this week’s game, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a predicted margin of points per game.
So far, the models have the Cougars ahead of the Utes in this rivalry game.
BYU emerged as the road favorite, coming out ahead in the majority 59.5 percent from the updated computer simulations for the match.
That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner of the remaining 40.5 percent of sims.
Overall, the Cougars came out ahead in 11,900 of the index calculations for the game, while the Utes edged out BYU in the remaining 8,100 predictions.
How does that translate into a projected margin of victory between these teams?
BYU is slated to be 3.5 points better of Utah, a 4-point difference if we round up, on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the latest model forecast.
If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.
This is because BYU is a 3.5 point favourite against Utah, according to updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total of 40.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And set the moneyline odds for BYU at -182 and for Utah at +150 to win outright.
Most bettors expect the Cougars to go undefeated against the Utes and close the gap, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.
BYU is up 70 percent from bets to win the game and cover the point spread.
The other 30 percent of the betting draft Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game to a field goal or less in a loss.
BYU is first among Big 12 teams with a 58.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.
The index gives the Cougars a projected win total 11 games this season.
Utah comes this weekend with a 41.7 percent chance to be eligible for a cup this season, according to the computers.
The model gives the Utes a total win forecast 5.4 games in ’24.
The Football Power Index (FPI) in college football rankings and computer prediction models is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including results to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.
Teams are not ranked by talent like in other rankings, but by projected game point differential against an average team on a neutral field.
First place votes in parentheses
- Oregon (62)
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Miami
- Texas
- Penn State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- BYU
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Boise State
- SMU
- LSU
- Texas A&M
- ole miss
- Iowa State
- army
- Clemson
- Washington State
- Colorado
- Kansas State
- Pittsburgh
- Vanderbilt
- Louisville
When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 20:15 Mountain
Television: ESPN Network
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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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