By james art 
Both North Carolina and the nation?
Tomorrow it might be. If Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, then there is very little way for Donald Trump to win a majority of the Electoral College.
The lead county will be New Hanover — home to the fast-growing city of Wilmington. New Hanover gave Joe Biden a slim 2% win in 2020, but he still lost statewide. The last time New Hanover went Democratic before that was for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Barack Obama came close in 2008 when he barely carried North Carolina. New Hanover gave Reagan a 30-point margin in 1984. George W. Bush won by 10 to 12 points in 2000 and 2004.
Of all the larger urban counties in North Carolina, New Hanover is the most Republican. But over the past 20 years, it has been moving steadily toward the Democratic Party — largely because of newcomers coming from more liberal states, but also because of generational change.
North Carolina polls close at 7:30 p.m.
so the results will come pretty soon in the evening.
I would suggest the following:
1) If Harris wins New Hanover by 2% like Biden did in 2020
> > > then North Carolina will be the nail.
2) If Harris wins in New Hanover by 4%
> > > then she will probably win North Carolina.
3) But if Trump wins in New Hanover
> > > then Harris will probably lose North Carolina.
Other important districts to watch are –
From Harris:
Mecklenburg (Charlotte) — This was GOP 30 years ago, but got 67% for Biden in 2020.
Durham — This is a majority minority and went 80% for Biden in 2020.
High voter turnout and continued solid African American support are essential.
From Trump’s side:
Gastonia — Charlotte’s working-class suburban district, heavily Republican
Johnston — fast-growing food and light industry, strong GOP.
Turnout and Trump’s share of the vote may be lower than in 2020
especially given GOP Mark Robinson’s disastrous run for governor.
I am increasingly confident that Harris will have North Carolina in his column.
And carry New Hanover County at 5+%.
Disclosure Statement — I have degrees from both UNC and NC State, which I rarely admit to gyms. I partied a lot more in Chapel Hill, got serious when I went to State.